Keep Santa Anita Open

Voices, from the shrill PETA to the softer timbre of the Los Angeles Times, have called for the suspension of racing at Santa Anita.  The pouring rains brought an outpouring of horror as over 20 beautiful animals died in races and in training.

But the sun is shining, and all has returned to normal.  Closing the track to determine the cause of the deaths is unnecessary and harmful.  Harmful because over a thousand people depend on Santa Anita for their livelihood, from ticket takers, to concession workers.

Unnecessary my dear Watson, because the cause of the deaths is obvious.  The only variable that changed from an historically safe racing surface was the historic rainfall.  To wring out the water the track is packed down, which is called sealing the track.  Neither a sloppy wet track, nor an overly hard sealed track are ideal.  Of the two the sealed may be worse.  More investigation should be made with regard to sealed tracks, but that is not a reason to halt racing during the dry season.

A smaller part of the problem is the shortage of horses.  Horse owners are squeezed.  Costs have risen with normal inflation.  The increased cost of basics, such as hay and oats, are passed through to owners.  But purses have stayed the same or declined.  Attendance and betting are down.  So there are fewer owners, and those owners, often have fewer horses than in better times.

Bigger fields increase the amount of betting.  So notwithstanding the shortage of horses, track ownership tries to get races with 8 to 12 horses.  Trainers are pressured to run their horses more often.  
In response to the deaths, the track is not pushing as hard.

Increased attendance would solve this later problem.  With the San Gabriel Mountains in the background, Santa Anita is one of the most beautiful ovals in the world.  Come out and spend a day at the track.

Biden Bashing

The elite bi-coastal 10 day Biden bashing cruise had empty cabins.  As I expected, Biden's poll numbers are not only steady, but up, notwithstanding, ten days of liberal media, and the female young turks of the party, saying, "Biden's conduct may not be disqualifying, but..."

Biden's hugging was not only not sexual, but not gender based.  He hugs young, and old, men and women.  This was acknowledged, but then ignored by his critics.  The issue is not do women have a right to feel comfortable, but do we all have a guaranteed right to personal comfort?  Except for a few millennials ensconced in a safe space, we all know the answer is a resounding, no.

When a conversation at the next table in a restaurant reaches hockey announcer decibels, I am uncomfortable.  I have options.  I can move,  I can say something, or I can suck it up.  What I cannot do is take a video, and then go to their place of employment and try to get them fired.  Can we not take responsibility for our own personal comfort, and make our own way?

For the elite, the final straw was Biden having the audacity to joke about the issue, when he was grabbed by a union leader.  Without humor as a social lubricant, society grinds to a halt.  As the fringe of the Me Too Movement scowled, America smiled.

If a lesson is to be drawn from Biden, look not to his public displays of affection, but to his private affection.  His marriage is the exemplar of mutual respect and accomplishment.

Lucy Flores, the Bad Neighbor

If your dog is barking at night, a good neighbor will come over to complain before calling the police. Not Lucy Flores, she would have the riot squad breaking down your door, and a sniper taking out your dog.

In 2014 Ms. Flores was running for Lieutenant Governor of Nevada.  At her request, Joe Biden went to Nevada to endorse her candidacy.  As she was about to go on stage she alleges, that he grabbed her shoulders, and kissed the top or back of her head.  She admits it was not sexual, but says intentions don't matter.  It made her uncomfortable.

As a strong empowered woman running for constitution office, she could have told Biden to stop.  If not, as a fellow member of the party, she could have written or called Biden to express her feelings.  She could have been the good neighbor.  But instead she has waited nearly 5 years, until he was about to announce his candidacy.  Nor did she have the courtesy to complain privately, but instead sought the public spotlight in an attempt to bring the wrath of the "Me Too" movement down upon Joe.

For the Me Too Movement to maintain its moral authority it must separated the serious from the spurious.

Early Leibovitz

A vast array of early Annie Leibovitz photos, from the mundane to the iconic, are on display at the Hauser & Wirth gallery in downtown Los Angeles. Those with deep pockets you can buy a piece of history.  The rest of us can share a moment, actually thousands of moments.

That Sinking Feeling

Trump is in trouble.  Although his name was on "The Art of the Deal," his negotiation style is better represented by Sartre's "No Exit."  In the shutdown he has no end game, no strategy, just bluster.  Not surprisingly, his poll numbers are near historic lows.

Rasmussen is hardly the Cum Laude of polls, with a C+ grade at FiveThirtyEight.  But now that the other daily tracking poll has Galluped away, it is the only horse in the stable.  Tracking polls are useful for spotting trends even if the absolute numbers are soft.

Rasmussen has two numbers, a total approval rating, and a much more interesting approval index.  The latter is the delta between strongly approve and strongly disapprove.  These are the voters you can count on.  The last 3 rolling averages have had Trump with a negative number of 16 to 17.  Strongly approve has been at between 31 and 32, and strongly disapprove at between 47 and 48.  That is, a near majority would vote for virtually anyone but Trump, while less than one third of the voters are locked on him.

For the President, the ride ahead may be rocky.  House investigations have yet to start, and the Mueller Report, which may cause him to ride off into the sunset, is on the horizon.  Happy trails are unlikely.

It's All Happening at the Zoo

“You know why you can enjoy a day at the zoo?” the son of President Donald Trump wrote in an Instagram story on Tuesday night. “Because walls work.”

This is so inane, let me count the ways.  Most offensive, it is squarely in the racist tradition of the Trump family to compare people of color to animals.  From his first public escalator ride Papa Trump has attacked brown, which is so strange, since it is the only color that compliments his iconic orange.

Second, it calls attention to the closure of the National Zoo, because of the Trump shutdown.  Third, like the proposed border wall, it is contrary to science.  Modern zoos, where possible, use natural barriers based on species behavior to replace walls.

Finally, zoo walls are as much to protect the animals from Eric and Junior, notorious game hunters, as they are to protect the Trump brothers.  

McVay Sway

As the Rams clinch their second straight NFC West title, it is time to ask if the McVay sway will equate to the Belichick effect.  The NFL wants a level playing field, with a rotating cast of teams punching into the playoffs.

Losing teams get higher draft choices.  High draft choices are not only better rated players, but cheap labor under rookie contracts.  Successful teams must struggle to keep players who have proven their worth on the national stage.  Top teams also face a brain drain, as losing teams grab their assistant coaches hoping to capture the magic.

Yet New England has remained a top contender.  Can McVay do the same for the Rams?  The first step is to find hidden gems in the draft.  Belichick has been a master.  The jury is out on the Rams 2018 draft class, but given the lack of a first round choice, the Rams 2017 class was exceptional.

As often happens in New England, the Rams lost assistants this year.  So far McVay has successfully filled the positions.  But the final piece is contract negotiation.  The salary cap is a sword hanging over top teams.   Players, particularly Brady, have accepted below market contracts to remain part of a winning team.  Time will tell if Goff, and others, are willing to do the same for McVay.