That Sinking Feeling

Trump is in trouble.  Although his name was on "The Art of the Deal," his negotiation style is better represented by Sartre's "No Exit."  In the shutdown he has no end game, no strategy, just bluster.  Not surprisingly, his poll numbers are near historic lows.

Rasmussen is hardly the Cum Laude of polls, with a C+ grade at FiveThirtyEight.  But now that the other daily tracking poll has Galluped away, it is the only horse in the stable.  Tracking polls are useful for spotting trends even if the absolute numbers are soft.

Rasmussen has two numbers, a total approval rating, and a much more interesting approval index.  The latter is the delta between strongly approve and strongly disapprove.  These are the voters you can count on.  The last 3 rolling averages have had Trump with a negative number of 16 to 17.  Strongly approve has been at between 31 and 32, and strongly disapprove at between 47 and 48.  That is, a near majority would vote for virtually anyone but Trump, while less than one third of the voters are locked on him.

For the President, the ride ahead may be rocky.  House investigations have yet to start, and the Mueller Report, which may cause him to ride off into the sunset, is on the horizon.  Happy trails are unlikely.

Pole Vaulting

The Gallup poll is galvanizing media attention.   Trump has failed to clear 40 on successive attempts. A 36 approval rating is an unheralded flop.  But the real bad news is the Rasmussen poll.  Missing Rasmussen is understandable.  Nate Silver at 538, only gives the poll a C+.  That means they could barely predict the weather in a snow storm.

Moreover, Rasmussen has a heavy Republican bias.  As recently as March 6 he was an extreme outlier, showing Trump with a 52% approval rating.  But even with that net positive, Trump narrowly trailed among those with strongly held opinions.

Now, Rasmussen has Trump down 45 to 55.  More telling, Trump is strongly disapproved by 44% and only strongly approved by 27%.   His core support is down to slightly over a quarter,  and his most strident opposition is nearing one half of likely voters.  The man of gold is barely competing for the bronze.