State of the Race

I can report that the state of the race is strong.  Trump is in a slump.  He is scarring mainstream Republicans, at a time when Hillary is consolidating Democratic support.  The latest poll has her up by 12.  Trump's attacks on Romney, even have them tied in Utah.

Propelled by extensive media coverage, Trump reached his high water mark in late May, taking a narrow lead in some polls.   According to a Harvard study, during the primary season, Trump received far more media coverage than Hillary, and twice that of any other GOP candidate.  Eighty percent of that coverage was favorable or neutral.  Only Sanders received more consistently positive coverage.  Clinton by contrast, received more negative coverage than any other candidate.  A combination of buyer's remorse, and equal time constraints, will change this going forward.  We will learn more about Trump's past in the future.

Hillary has huge advantages going forward.  Her starting lineup of surrogates include the President, the First Lady, the redoubtable Bill, and Elizabeth Warren.  She has another dozen Senators on the bench.  Trump has Ben Carson.

Claiming to be self funded, and inflating his personal wealth, has left Trump ill prepared to fill his campaign coffers.  He will be outspent at least 2 to 1.  He has no ground game, and must rely on the Republican National Committee, which may focus on the Senate and the House if his poll numbers continue to crater.

Finally, she has a winning line of attack.  Twice campaigns have challenged a candidate's suitability to be Commander-in-Chief.  Carter's attacks failed, when Reagan appeared presidential during the debates.  Johnson succeeded when Goldwater doubled down on conservatism ("Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice").  Trump's character is not going to change.   Hillary will use her financial edge to drive home the message that Trump has neither  the temperament nor the experience necessary to lead the free world.

Shame on Trump

Tragedies should unite us.  We all rallied around George W. Bush after 9/11.  But Trump has chosen to attack the sitting president.  If you parse his words carefully, he implies that Obama was involved or sympathetic to this act of terrorism.  Shame!

Time to set the record straight.  Obama is responsible for the death of Osama bin Laden as well as fatal drone strikes against 120 ISIS leaders.  He has done this while maintaining the working relationships with Muslim states, and the local Islamic community, that are so crucial in the fight against ISIS.

Now let's look at the other side of the ledger.  Shortly after the attack in Orlando the Republican Lieutenant Governor of Texas tweeted a biblical verse clearly expounding that the victims deserved to die because of their homosexuality.  Republican tolerance, of such intolerance, facilitates the all too common hate crimes against the LGBT community.

More pointedly, since 9/11 guns have been used in over 85% of terrorist killings.   Trump and his party are on bended knee before the NRA,  protecting and expanding loopholes in background checks, while supporting universal access to assault weapons.

Trump's Romney Riff

With flowing rhetoric, Trump should be wooing donors to pump money into his coffers, and uniting the tributaries that are the Republican Party.  But he just can't do it.  The notorious lech can't resist grabbing a tit for every tat.  

On Friday in Richmond he spent all too precious political capital attacking the last GOP presidential candidate.  Time is running out as Trump dashes in the wrong direction, alienating Romney supporters, and more importantly, Romney donors. 

An old maxim is that a lawyer who represents himself, has a fool for a client.  Perhaps the same applies to a candidate who manages his own campaign.

Trump=187

When Republican Governor Pete Wilson dropped proposition 187 into the murky California political waters, he turned them bright blue.  Unwavering hispanic support has kept the golden state blue all these many years.

Like California, New Mexico and Texas, are states in which minorities make up the majority of the population.  A rollicking registration drive, and targeted ads featuring Trump's racist remarks, could have proposition 187 type results.  New Mexico could change from purple to blue, while Texas could change from solid red to purple.  Texas Republicans, like George W. Bush, have actively contested the hispanic vote.  Trump could be a seismic shift.   The Texas earthquake would rock the GOP for decades.

Dollar Don

Beneath the bluster and glitter, campaigns hint at the nature of a candidate's future governance.  We always knew that Trump would be bombastic, impulsive, and thin skinned.  But we never suspected that he intended to turn the White House into the home shopping network,

Victory speeches have hawked his buildings and golf courses.  His upcoming trip to Scotland and Ireland is not to meet with world leaders, but to promote his 18 holed wonders.  His attacks on the judge in the Trump University case is the most extreme example.  His past racist comments have at least been policy based, relating either to immigration or terrorism.  But impugning the objectivity of a judge because he is "Mexican," was about Trump's business interests.  Trump is  using his bully pulpit, as the presumptive nominee, to attack business opponents.  His presidency would be a 4 year infomercial.

Vote for Hillary

Hillary has clinched, but she still needs our votes.  Momentum matters.  Victories on the first Tuesday in June can propel her to victory on the first Tuesday in November.

Every four years candidates demonize their opponents.  Mild mannered Mitt became a raging capitalist pig.  But this year we have a real demon.  With your help Hillary can be Buffy the Trump slayer.  Each vote is a wooden stake.  Hillary supporters must turn out, Bernie supporters must turn to Hillary.

Will Trump Do Jail Time?

Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel are not only racist, but squarely within the definition of contempt of court.  Quoting the legal portion of the  Free Dictionary, "Individuals may be cited for contempt when they ...  defy a public authority or hold it up to ridicule and disrespect...Criminal contempt is punitive; courts use it to punish parties who have impaired the courts' functioning or bruised their dignity."

Calling a judge racist and biased before an audience numbering in the millions is criminal.   Using the  bully pulpit afforded the presumptive republican nominee to commit the crime is tragic.  The American people deserve better, than a petty, vindictive, self-serving tyrant.