I can report that the state of the race is strong. Trump is in a slump. He is scarring mainstream Republicans, at a time when Hillary is consolidating Democratic support. The latest poll has her up by 12. Trump's attacks on Romney, even have them tied in Utah.
Propelled by extensive media coverage, Trump reached his high water mark in late May, taking a narrow lead in some polls. According to a Harvard study, during the primary season, Trump received far more media coverage than Hillary, and twice that of any other GOP candidate. Eighty percent of that coverage was favorable or neutral. Only Sanders received more consistently positive coverage. Clinton by contrast, received more negative coverage than any other candidate. A combination of buyer's remorse, and equal time constraints, will change this going forward. We will learn more about Trump's past in the future.
Hillary has huge advantages going forward. Her starting lineup of surrogates include the President, the First Lady, the redoubtable Bill, and Elizabeth Warren. She has another dozen Senators on the bench. Trump has Ben Carson.
Claiming to be self funded, and inflating his personal wealth, has left Trump ill prepared to fill his campaign coffers. He will be outspent at least 2 to 1. He has no ground game, and must rely on the Republican National Committee, which may focus on the Senate and the House if his poll numbers continue to crater.
Finally, she has a winning line of attack. Twice campaigns have challenged a candidate's suitability to be Commander-in-Chief. Carter's attacks failed, when Reagan appeared presidential during the debates. Johnson succeeded when Goldwater doubled down on conservatism ("Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice"). Trump's character is not going to change. Hillary will use her financial edge to drive home the message that Trump has neither the temperament nor the experience necessary to lead the free world.
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