By The Numbers

The immortal Watergate phrase, "Follow the money," applies equally well to presidential campaigns.  Campaigns stop spending in a state because it is either in the bag, or out of reach.  In 2016 Trump won 306 electoral college votes, including claiming Michigan's 16 votes by  a mere 10,000 ballots.

On July 2, after consistently bad poll numbers, the Trump campaign went dark in Michigan.  Without Michigan Trump is down to 290, if he carried all the states that supported him in 2016.   That is just 20 electors more than he needs to be reelected.

Trump is besieged on many fronts.  If he lost Florida's 29 electors votes, Biden is our next president.  Trailing there, he has allocated 39 million of his latest 126 million ad buy to his new home state.  The next largest expenditure, nearly 19 million, is in the lately bright red state of Ohio.  Trump is on defense.

Biden was born in Pennsylvania and his political career has been in the neighboring state of Delaware.  Biden is a strong favorite to pick up Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes.  That puts him only 2 electors away from victory.   Any state will do.  Currently Biden is ahead in the former Trump states of Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina.  Georgia and Texas are a toss up.

To make up for likely losses, Trump needs to win someplace that voted for Clinton.  His campaign has targeted New Hampshire's 4 and Minnesota's 10 electoral votes.  He trails by double digits in both.  His best chance for an electoral surprise is Nevada's 6 votes.  Nevada would not be enough.

Money talks.

Lazy Daze

These lazy, particularly crazy, days of summer are the product of the lazy daze of this administration.  Beginning with the winter of our discontent, this president has never expended the effort necessary to govern.

Joe Biden has a transition team hard at work.   The ship of state needs a large crew ready to go at embarkation.  After aborting a transition team under Chis Christy, Trump won the election without anyone to steer the ship.  His cadre was shocked to discover 6000 positions subject to presidential appointment.  He never made the effort to staff the government.

Obama appointees were left in position, vetting was slip shod leading to frequent embarrassments.  To this very summer day, scores of positions are either vacant or filled on a temporary basis.  Under, and poorly, staffed the government has flailed.

The books by Mary Trump and John Bolton, paint a shallow portrait.  Trump has never done an honest days work.  His younger sister did his college homework, his friend took his SAT, and daddy's money bailed him out of personal and business failures.  He neither reads his daily security reports nor absorbs his oral briefings.

He governs by tweets, executive proclamations and talking points.  He never does the hard work of developing policy and a course of action.  He golfed while the nation became engulfed in a pandemic.    He was glued to Fox News, as our bonds with our allies weakened, and our rivals shed our constraints.

To this day Trump refuses to do his homework before engaging with foreign leaders.  Better informed, our adversaries have the advantage.  But his greatest failing has been the Coronavirus.

As the nation begged for leadership, he left the hard work to the governors, never formulating a national policy.  As foreign  leaders imposed their will, bringing the virus to heel, we have allowed it to fester and proliferate.

Most recently Trump has called for schools to reopen.  He has reduced it to a slogan, rather than a plan.  To win reelection, he needs the economy to improve. School is the day care that allows return to full employment.  But Trump has refused to do the hard work of outlining and funding the steps for a safe reopening.

We need a hard working Joe.

Money Can't Buy Me Love

Madison Avenue elites had stunning visuals, catchy slogans, and most importantly, an unlimited budget.  But they could not sell New Coke.

Combined, the RNC, PACs and the Trump campaign have spent 552 million dollars, exceeding Biden expenditures by over 200 million.  Trump trails by double digits in most polls.

To many he may have seemed effervescent at first, but none can deny the bad after taste.