WINNERS
Elizabeth Warren
In a New York minute she took the bloom off the billionaire ex-mayor. She knew the abc's of nda's. She was passionate and aggressive, arresting her downward spiral with a strong bid back into the top tier.
Joe Biden
Like Elizabeth, Joe needed to stop the bleeding. Biden had his best debate, avoiding the destruction derby in the moderate lane. Biden's early problems fueled the Bloomberg surge. Bloomberg's collisions, cleared the path for Joe.
Bernie Sanders
His one note semi-socialist samba, remains atop the Democratic hit parade. Like Dewars Scotch, Bernie never varies. That was enough, on a night when Bloomberg drew the heat. Bernie left the stage, relatively unscathed. That is enough for the front runner.
LOSERS
Mike Bloomberg
As a technocrat, debating has never been a strength. But on Wednesday he was clearly not ready for prime time. A record 20 million viewers tuned in to see the man behind the ads. He looked like New Coke. Well promoted, but not a keeper. No doubt all his well shod horses, and well paid men will be able to put his image back together again. A few hundred million in ads can save the day, provided he does not lay an egg in the next debate.
Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar
Pete wove his usual word spell. Amy had grit and wit. But the fight between the two, usually polite Midwesterners, was to the detriment of both. They are drawing from the same pool of voters. Their tiff could have a few voters swimming away.
Tom Steyer
Out of sight, out of mind. Failing to qualify, nullified the opportunity fo show 20 million viewers that he is the good billionaire.
Friday, February 21, 2020
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
New Hampshire Winners and Losers
Winners
Amy Klobuchar
She was outspent, battled low name recognition, and had the smallest organization on the ground of the major candidates. But her message, and her debate performance, propelled her to a strong third place showing. She rocked the Granite State.
Pete Buttigieg
Double the pleasure, double the fun. After two contests this mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana has won the most delegates. His vote total in New Hampshire was close enough to that of Sanders to allow him to equal Bernie's delegate haul from the state.
Losers
Elizabeth Warren
Although she edged out Bidden for 4th place, she was the biggest loser of the night. She entered the primary with major advantages. Half of the population of New Hampshire is in the Boston media market. So as the Senator of Massachusetts she is well known. Her ground game was said to be the best, no doubt helped by the relative proximity to her campaign headquarters.
She has no obvious path forward. She was crushed geographically, demographically and ideologically. Other than her home state, she will never again have the proximity advantage she enjoyed in New Hampshire. Her campaign for college educated women, was trounced by Pete, and even more so by Amy. Bernie owns the progressive wing of the party. Her narrow lane is to the right of Bernie, and to the left of Pete and Amy. To date that is a road less traveled.
Joe Bidden
In both Iowa and New Hampshire, the Bidden argument that electability trumped ideology prevailed, based on exit polls. Unfortunately in New Hampshire he was not regarded as the most likely candidate to beat Trump.
As the former Vice President, and long time front runner, his fifth place finish was a shocking disappointment. In this topsy turvy political world, Trump's impeachment may have hurt Joe more than it hurt Trump. But unlike, Elizabeth, Joe still has a path forward. If he can retain his lead with Black voters, he can make a stand in South Carolina.
Bernie Sanders
Yes, he won. Yes, he got the most votes in Iowa. Yes, with a crowded field of moderates, and Warren flailing, he has the clearest path to the nomination. But his New Hampshire win has more caveats than caviar. As the Senator from a neighboring state, he crushed it in 2016 with 60 percent of the vote and a 20 point victory. In 2020 he got just over a quarter of the vote, winning by less than 2 per cent. The split in the moderate vote, allowed him to squeeze out a narrow win.
But New Hampshire undermined the electoral rationale for his candidacy. Moderates path to victory is wooing independents and disaffected Republicans, particularly suburban women. The Bernie strategy is to grow the base by bringing in disaffected voters, particularly the young. Young voters, as a percentage of the electorate, dropped dramatically from 2016. Bernie has a path to the nomination, but a road block in the general election.
The Dropouts
Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett pinned their hopes on New Hampshire. Neither did well enough to stay in the race. I hope to see Yang in the next Democratic administration. We need a futurist.
Amy Klobuchar
She was outspent, battled low name recognition, and had the smallest organization on the ground of the major candidates. But her message, and her debate performance, propelled her to a strong third place showing. She rocked the Granite State.
Pete Buttigieg
Double the pleasure, double the fun. After two contests this mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana has won the most delegates. His vote total in New Hampshire was close enough to that of Sanders to allow him to equal Bernie's delegate haul from the state.
Losers
Elizabeth Warren
Although she edged out Bidden for 4th place, she was the biggest loser of the night. She entered the primary with major advantages. Half of the population of New Hampshire is in the Boston media market. So as the Senator of Massachusetts she is well known. Her ground game was said to be the best, no doubt helped by the relative proximity to her campaign headquarters.
She has no obvious path forward. She was crushed geographically, demographically and ideologically. Other than her home state, she will never again have the proximity advantage she enjoyed in New Hampshire. Her campaign for college educated women, was trounced by Pete, and even more so by Amy. Bernie owns the progressive wing of the party. Her narrow lane is to the right of Bernie, and to the left of Pete and Amy. To date that is a road less traveled.
Joe Bidden
In both Iowa and New Hampshire, the Bidden argument that electability trumped ideology prevailed, based on exit polls. Unfortunately in New Hampshire he was not regarded as the most likely candidate to beat Trump.
As the former Vice President, and long time front runner, his fifth place finish was a shocking disappointment. In this topsy turvy political world, Trump's impeachment may have hurt Joe more than it hurt Trump. But unlike, Elizabeth, Joe still has a path forward. If he can retain his lead with Black voters, he can make a stand in South Carolina.
Bernie Sanders
Yes, he won. Yes, he got the most votes in Iowa. Yes, with a crowded field of moderates, and Warren flailing, he has the clearest path to the nomination. But his New Hampshire win has more caveats than caviar. As the Senator from a neighboring state, he crushed it in 2016 with 60 percent of the vote and a 20 point victory. In 2020 he got just over a quarter of the vote, winning by less than 2 per cent. The split in the moderate vote, allowed him to squeeze out a narrow win.
But New Hampshire undermined the electoral rationale for his candidacy. Moderates path to victory is wooing independents and disaffected Republicans, particularly suburban women. The Bernie strategy is to grow the base by bringing in disaffected voters, particularly the young. Young voters, as a percentage of the electorate, dropped dramatically from 2016. Bernie has a path to the nomination, but a road block in the general election.
The Dropouts
Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett pinned their hopes on New Hampshire. Neither did well enough to stay in the race. I hope to see Yang in the next Democratic administration. We need a futurist.
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