With the economic earthquake and the Bush backlash, 2008 was destined to be a Democratic deluge. If McCain lost the nomination to Romney in 2008, he quite likely would be the Republican nominee now. Economic stagnation and, at best, ambivalence to Obamacare, would have made 2012 McCain's to lose.
As have often been pointed out, most recently by Sean Trende at http://realclearpolitics.com, defeating an incumbent takes two steps. First, the public must be convinced to vote against the sitting President, as is presently the case. Second, the challenger must be an acceptable alternative, a combination of personality and biography. As an ever feisty war hero, McCain would have easily cleared the second hurdle. Although Ms. Palin would no doubt have claimed that, "she could see the economy from her house," she would not have been the VP. Not needing a game changer, McCain would have picked someone to shore up his economic credentials.
Neither personality nor biography are Romney strong suits. On camera he is insincere and appears smug. Romneycare prevents him from running as a former governor, and attacks on Bain fetter his emphasis on his business experience. Pictures of him with his dog saying, "Roof, roof'" would be over the top. As a Mormon, he has apparently determined that emphasizing his deep personal, financial and philosophical commitment to his church, is too risky. As a Nowhere Man, he may indeed go no where in this election. His only advantage over McCain is that he can enumerate all of his houses.
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