Swiftboating Romney (redux)

When the Bain ads first aired many prominent Democrats doubted the strategy.  Back in July the post below discussed the value of that line of attack, and particularly the strength of the so called "Coffin ad."  Some now credit that ad for locking up Ohio.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Swiftboating Romney

The subject of the negative advertising against Senator Kerry was more important than failure to fact check.  Attacking an opponent's weakness wounds,  undercutting his strength kills.

Romney could not win the Republican nomination running on his record as governor.  Instead he proclaimed,  that as a businessman he understands the economy and knows how to create jobs.  As an aside, a Romney victory might not only be depressing for me, but also for the country as a whole.  The last businessman/president was Herbert Hoover.

The Bain Capital ads may have generated some angst in D.C. and New York, but they have lubricated the rust belt.  Polls now show that a majority in the battleground states regard Romney's business tenure as a negative.  The ads peel away voters from Romney's core constituency, non-college educated white males.  The ads have the added benefit of attacking Romney's weakness.  He is not likeable.  Even if he drank, you would rather have a beer with Barack, than a margarita with Mitt.

The most devastating ad is: "Stage" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLo0Jwj03JU&feature=youtu.be.  A fired worker recalls building the stage used as a platform by Bain executives to announce the closing of the plant.  He says, "It was like building my own coffin".  Prioities USA seeks to nail the coffin shut on the Romney candidacy.

DI's Restaurant in Basile, Louisiana

DI's restaurant is five miles from nowhere, a huge restaurant set in the middle of their own crawfish farm.  Not surprisingly, they have the best crawfish I have ever tasted.  There are no reservations, so there can be a wait.  Usually, there is a cajun band for dancing.  But on the night we visited there was  the traditional cajun Mardi Gras chicken run

Republican Poll Dancing

Republicans sliding down polls are wiggling like never before, but no one is tipping.  For them the highlight of the show would be for Obama to take center stage with no coattails.

Polls can be slippery things.  Determining the makeup of likely voters is as much an art as a science.  There can be a silicone effect which can push up the numbers, if the wrong assumptions are used about party affiliation, minority composition, or gender.  Numbers can be bumped and ground down by robo call polls like Rasmussen, which only call land lines.

 Someone going down in the polls often blames the polls, but the extreme right are completely losing their grip.  Hewitt, Limbaugh, Morris and Erickson, and no doubt others, believe the polls are a conspiracy by the main stream media to suppress the Republican vote.  This is an unsupportable naked assertion, the Republican expertise in voter suppression notwithstanding.  Pollsters who lack credibility will be dancing alone, nary a VIP client in sight.  Democrats, particularly Obama, fear over confidence.

Republicans need to lighten up.  Perhaps, the party should have a two drink minimum.

Obama's October Surprise (Redux)

"In one Ohio ad buy slated to run just before the election, for example, Obama is paying $125 for a spot that is costing a conservative super PAC $900."  From an article by Dan Egan in the Washington Post on September 26.

The first post on this blog discussed the financial advantages Obama would enjoy because of campaign finance law. 

Obama's October (and September) Surprise

Commercial airways in the 60 days preceding the Presidential Election may not be a complete no fly zone for Super Pacs, but at a minimum flights will be limited, expensive, and difficult to change.  Conventional wisdom is wrong.  Super Pacs will have less impact than expected.

Under campaign finance law television stations must give each presidential campaign reasonable access, freedom from censorship, and during the 60 days preceding the election, the lowest unit rate available.  Neither Super Pacs, nor the political parties,  enjoy these advantages.  In fact a television station violates the law if a Super Pac is offered a reduced advertising rate (See Federal Election Commission Advisory Opinion 2006-31).  It would be an illegal campaign contribution for a station, e. g. Fox News, to offer a Super Pac reduced rates.

The law should favor the President.  Mitt is expected to catch more Super Pac money, while the President will field more small contributions directly to his campaign.   In the crucial run up to the election, a dollar from the President's campaign will buy more advertising than a dollar from a Romney Super Pac.

Equally important is flexibility.  In the closing days of a campaign resource allocation may change rapidly, a state may come into, or go out of play.  Super Pacs have no preferential access to air time.  With the expected deluge of political adds in battle ground states, as well as increased commercial adds during the start of the fall season, advertising time will be limited.  To get on the air Super Pacs may have to commit, and lock in resources, earlier than the campaigns.  Money may be wasted in states that are no longer battlegrounds.  (To keep up on which states are battlegrounds, and other political news, checkout http://www.politicalwire.com)

Message flexibility is as important as geography.  Campaigns may need to cut an ad at the last minute to confront a new issue.  Since adds from a campaign are free from censorship, stations accept content without review.  Ads from Super Pacs must be reviewed, which can delay airing of the adds.

The President's surprise is that while less money may be spent by him in the final days of the election, he will have as much, or more, advertising time in battleground states as the challenger.

I told you so

Political commentators are only now discussing what my few, but faithful, readers learned in June.

Did Super PACs Not Matter?

Jonathan Chait: "One of the dogs that hasn't barked in this campaign is the massive financial advantage Mitt Romney was expected to enjoy on account of nearly unlimited funds available to him from conservative Superpacs. Yet, even including the efforts of outside groups, Obama has been out-advertising Romney in the key swing states..."

"The full story of how the financial tsunami failed to strike has yet to be untangled, but bits and pieces have dribbled out over recent days."


Also, a big shout out to Iowa.  Early in person voting begins today.  Vote!

Republican Uncivil War

 If, as seems increasingly likely, Obama wins, the grey suited elite will be battling the blue collar base.  Tea partiers will be pouring hot water into the main stream.  Warning shots have been fired.

Erick Erickson of RedState has written:

 "There are a lot of elitist Republicans who have spent several years telling us Mitt Romney was the only electable Republican. Because the opinion makers and news media these elitists hang out with have concluded Romney will not win, the elitists are in full on panic mode. They conspired to shut out others, tear down others, and prop up Romney with the electability argument. He is now not winning against the second coming of Jimmy Carter. They know there will be many conservatives, should Mitt Romney lose, who will not be satisfied until every bridge is burned with these jerks, hopefully with the elitist jerks tied to the bridge as it burns."

Rhetorical immolation of David Brooks, Peggy Noonan, and others, before the first vote is counted, harkens the imminent  fratricide.  The ever dwindling Jeb Bush portion of the party will argue that Romney ran a poor campaign and, a campaign so impaired by the  rigidity of its right wing, that it was unable to sustain flight.  Conservatives will vow to shoot any Rino on sight.  For them, the lesson will be that only a true conservative can conquer the American electorate.

Bill will chuckle as Hillary coasts to victory in 2016.

Akin Plunges Head First into Gender Gap (redux)

A giant shout out to Claire McCaskill.  Today is the last day for Todd Akin to withdraw.  She has held her fire for fear of forcing him out of the race. Now the ad described below can run.

The deadliest gaffe is when a candidate inadvertently tells the truth.  Such is the case with Todd Akin's claim that "legitimate" rape victims do not get pregnant.  Romney, and all other Republicans in close races, live in mortal fear of the gender gap.  This explains the rapid fire denouncement of the remark by so many key Republicans, and the defunding of Akin by the Republican National Committee and American Crossroads.

No doubt some social conservative groups will make up some of the funding, but Akin is in trouble.  Since Missouri had become an increasingly red state, some now consider the race competitive instead of leaning strongly Republican.  Soon they will acknowledge the race is taking on a blue tint.  Republican criticism of Akin helps the critics but hurts the party.  The inevitable McCaskill ads featuring these denouncements will be decisive.

The road to Republican control of the Senate, has always gone through Missouri.  This road block will add at least 2 years to that journey.

Here is a new ad by McCaskill:  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/26/mccaskill_hammers_akin_in_new_ad.html