You can only judge a man by what he says and does. From rental policies, to birtherism, to Charlottesville, to "shithole countries", Trump Is a Racist.
The secret is out. He cannot even visit our closest ally without London bridges falling down.
Friday, January 12, 2018
Monday, January 8, 2018
Caps Off to the Rams
No, this is not a congratulatory note for the Rams turn around, although it is certainly deserved. Rather it is about the off season moves they will need to sustain their momentum.
The Rams have roughly 50 million in cap space for 2018 and nearly 100 million in 2019. That is not enough. They will either have to lose some key players to free agency or create more cap space.
Most important, is retaining Aaron Donald. Although he has a year left on his contract, the Rams know they need to get a deal done. In order of importance here are key Rams who become free agents in 2018: Lamarcus Joyner, Trumaine Johnson, John Sullivan, Nickell Robley-Coleman, Sammy Watkins, Conner Baldwin, Matt Longacre and Cody Davis.
Joyner rates out as one of the top safeties in the league, but should cost much less to sign than Trumaine Johnson. The Rams will sign him, but the cost will be in the 7 to 9 million a year range. The Rams would love to keep Trumaine, but my guess is they will not go much over 10 million a year. If they lose him, the plus side is than he will garner a big enough contract to net the Rams a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2018 draft. The same applies to Sammy Watkins. He did not have a great year. But he stretches the field, and if in better sync with Goff could have an impressive 2018. On a number of occasions, Goff under threw him on long passes, including against Atlanta. The Rams will probably sign him if 5-7 million a year works. If he wants more, the Rams will take the draft choice. Because of limited cap space in 2018, I challenge those who suggest that Watkins will get a franchise tag.
John Sullivan literally centered the Rams offensive line, and most importantly, stayed healthy. Hopefully they can sign him for 3 years at about 4-5 million a year. Particularly if they lose Trumaine, the Rams need to sign Nickell, their nickel back. Conner Baldwin is worth keeping at a reasonable price, particularly if the Rams let Robert Quinn go. With holes in the secondary, the Rams will keep Cody Davis, at a nominal cost. He is an exclusive rights free agent. The same should be true of Matt Longacre, a restricted rights free agent.
How do the Rams add to their cap space.? The obvious, but wrong, answer is Tavon Austin. He was grossly overpaid in 2017, given his limited contribution. Dumping Austin saves the Rams nearly 10 million in 2019 and 2020, but only 3 million in 2018. In 2018 Austin counts for 5 million on his prorated bonus which is dead money if he is dropped or traded. His salary is only 3 million in 2018. So at a cost of 3 million Austin may be worth keeping, or tradable.
The odd man out is almost certainly Robert Quinn. Dropping him saves the Rams 10 million this year, and nearly 12 million in 2019. He is still good, but not that good.
The success in free agency will determine the Rams' draft priorities. Certainly they will look to add to their secondary. Even if the Rams retain John Sullivan, they need help on the offensive line. The Rams were the only team in the NFL to have the same 5 starters for the whole season. Big holes for Gurley, and a clean pocket for Goff, were the result. The Rams need a versatile backup, and will most likely spend at least a 3rd round draft choice to do it.
To remain a contender the Rams need a 2018 offseason as strong as their 2017 regular season.
The Rams have roughly 50 million in cap space for 2018 and nearly 100 million in 2019. That is not enough. They will either have to lose some key players to free agency or create more cap space.
Most important, is retaining Aaron Donald. Although he has a year left on his contract, the Rams know they need to get a deal done. In order of importance here are key Rams who become free agents in 2018: Lamarcus Joyner, Trumaine Johnson, John Sullivan, Nickell Robley-Coleman, Sammy Watkins, Conner Baldwin, Matt Longacre and Cody Davis.
Joyner rates out as one of the top safeties in the league, but should cost much less to sign than Trumaine Johnson. The Rams will sign him, but the cost will be in the 7 to 9 million a year range. The Rams would love to keep Trumaine, but my guess is they will not go much over 10 million a year. If they lose him, the plus side is than he will garner a big enough contract to net the Rams a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2018 draft. The same applies to Sammy Watkins. He did not have a great year. But he stretches the field, and if in better sync with Goff could have an impressive 2018. On a number of occasions, Goff under threw him on long passes, including against Atlanta. The Rams will probably sign him if 5-7 million a year works. If he wants more, the Rams will take the draft choice. Because of limited cap space in 2018, I challenge those who suggest that Watkins will get a franchise tag.
John Sullivan literally centered the Rams offensive line, and most importantly, stayed healthy. Hopefully they can sign him for 3 years at about 4-5 million a year. Particularly if they lose Trumaine, the Rams need to sign Nickell, their nickel back. Conner Baldwin is worth keeping at a reasonable price, particularly if the Rams let Robert Quinn go. With holes in the secondary, the Rams will keep Cody Davis, at a nominal cost. He is an exclusive rights free agent. The same should be true of Matt Longacre, a restricted rights free agent.
How do the Rams add to their cap space.? The obvious, but wrong, answer is Tavon Austin. He was grossly overpaid in 2017, given his limited contribution. Dumping Austin saves the Rams nearly 10 million in 2019 and 2020, but only 3 million in 2018. In 2018 Austin counts for 5 million on his prorated bonus which is dead money if he is dropped or traded. His salary is only 3 million in 2018. So at a cost of 3 million Austin may be worth keeping, or tradable.
The odd man out is almost certainly Robert Quinn. Dropping him saves the Rams 10 million this year, and nearly 12 million in 2019. He is still good, but not that good.
The success in free agency will determine the Rams' draft priorities. Certainly they will look to add to their secondary. Even if the Rams retain John Sullivan, they need help on the offensive line. The Rams were the only team in the NFL to have the same 5 starters for the whole season. Big holes for Gurley, and a clean pocket for Goff, were the result. The Rams need a versatile backup, and will most likely spend at least a 3rd round draft choice to do it.
To remain a contender the Rams need a 2018 offseason as strong as their 2017 regular season.
Friday, November 10, 2017
Midseason Evaluation of Sammy Watkins Trade
Over 8 games, Sammy Watkins has only caught 19 passes. To acquire him, in the final year of his contract, and a 6th round draft choice, the Rams gave up a 2nd round draft choice and cornerback E.J. Gaines. Yet I can say the trade has been an unmitigated success.
Statistics underestimate Watkins value. By stretching the field, and attracting the attention of each opponent's top corner, he has opened thing up for Woods and Kupp, as well as for Gurley. As he gets more in sync with Goff more success should follow.
The compensation for him is less than meets the eye. Gaines, although a steal in the 6th round, would have been a backup for the Rams. The value of the 2nd round draft choice is diminishing with each win.
Granted, they have only leased Watkins for one year, but even that has its advantages. The final year of Watkins rookie contract is a bargain. If the Rams resign him, they will have a deep threat for years to come. If he leaves and signs a big contract elsewhere, the Rams will get a compensatory pick, perhaps as high as a third rounder.
Thursday, October 26, 2017
Why Now?
Republican tax reform, if passed, will score political points and please donors. What it will not do is benefit the middle class.
Adding a trillion and one half dollars to the deficit is a glass that should only be broken in case of an emergency. Democrats smashed the glass during the great depression, and more recently, during the great recession. Republicans are ringing the alarm when the country is on a path towards low unemployment and finally, wage escalation. Even if drastic action is justified an infrastructure bill would be the more obvious path to high paying jobs and long term economic growth.
Ending the estate tax provides no such benefit. The tax is progressive, only applying to estates over 11 million for married couples, and half of that for singles. With tax planning and exemptions, the number is actually higher. The estimate is that it only applies to the upper 1/5 of 1 percent of all families. Even that is deceptive since the tax is graduated, and is rather nominal under 20 million dollars. Among the few who would benefit from repeal are the President, and most of his billionaire cabinet.
Adding a trillion and one half dollars to the deficit is a glass that should only be broken in case of an emergency. Democrats smashed the glass during the great depression, and more recently, during the great recession. Republicans are ringing the alarm when the country is on a path towards low unemployment and finally, wage escalation. Even if drastic action is justified an infrastructure bill would be the more obvious path to high paying jobs and long term economic growth.
Ending the estate tax provides no such benefit. The tax is progressive, only applying to estates over 11 million for married couples, and half of that for singles. With tax planning and exemptions, the number is actually higher. The estimate is that it only applies to the upper 1/5 of 1 percent of all families. Even that is deceptive since the tax is graduated, and is rather nominal under 20 million dollars. Among the few who would benefit from repeal are the President, and most of his billionaire cabinet.
The accumulation of wealth by entrepreneurs and innovators may well create jobs and opportunities--tax free inheritance by their heirs, not so much. Will the country really benefit if Eric, and Donald Jr. inherit one billion, rather than 600 million each? Trust fund babies will not make this country great again.
Republican arguments for repeal are frivolous. If any of the few remaining large family farms are lost, the fault lies not with the tax, but with their tax planner. Many strategies, including forms of insurance, protect farms and businesses. If double taxation was a GOP concern, eliminating deductions for state income tax would not be on the table.
Cutting corporate rates is only a little better. For a free market party, the GOP has little understanding of corporate allocation of resources. The Board of Directors establish goals, backed by incentives for senior management. Salary is usually the smallest part of executive compensation. The goals seldom include increasing the work force or raising wages. A CEO is rewarded for increases in earnings and stock price. The latter is reinforced with stock option awards. The benefit of reduced corporate taxes will be a gusher for shareholders, and as a result, for executives, but only a drop in the bucket for workers.
Once again the GOP is crying wolf while the sheep prosper. The stock market and corporate profits are at record highs.
Will lower corporate rates bring some jobs back to America? That is not a fully answered question. If Congress is serious, they will have the issue investigated through extensive hearings. Lobbyists earn their keep. Company, and industry specific, tax exemptions mean that the nominal tax rate is seldom the rate paid.
Taxes are only one of many factors determining the location of factories and offices. Before we pay the first installment we should know what we are buying.
What we are selling is social programs. As the debt increases, Republicans will not raise taxes. Rather they will push for reductions in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Cutting corporate rates is only a little better. For a free market party, the GOP has little understanding of corporate allocation of resources. The Board of Directors establish goals, backed by incentives for senior management. Salary is usually the smallest part of executive compensation. The goals seldom include increasing the work force or raising wages. A CEO is rewarded for increases in earnings and stock price. The latter is reinforced with stock option awards. The benefit of reduced corporate taxes will be a gusher for shareholders, and as a result, for executives, but only a drop in the bucket for workers.
Once again the GOP is crying wolf while the sheep prosper. The stock market and corporate profits are at record highs.
Will lower corporate rates bring some jobs back to America? That is not a fully answered question. If Congress is serious, they will have the issue investigated through extensive hearings. Lobbyists earn their keep. Company, and industry specific, tax exemptions mean that the nominal tax rate is seldom the rate paid.
Taxes are only one of many factors determining the location of factories and offices. Before we pay the first installment we should know what we are buying.
What we are selling is social programs. As the debt increases, Republicans will not raise taxes. Rather they will push for reductions in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
Promise Forward, Claw Back
When you or I give one hundred dollars to a candidate it is a contribution. When the wealthiest among us donate one hundred thousand, it is an investment. For them, tax reform will pay off big.
Even in an era of unbridled greed, a tax cut for the wealthiest will not cross the finish line. Instead Republicans couched the bill as a job creation initiative that will boost employment and wages. Leave aside that this is a drastic course correction, when we are on a path of low unemployment and finally, wage escalation.
More troubling, past tax cuts have been a gusher for shareholders, but barely a drop in the bucket for workers. With a business man president, and a business friendly Congress, we should demand business like accountability. We should treat the job growth and wage increase promises as stretch goals, and the tax deductions as incentive awards for achieving the goals. So grant the tax deductions but with a claw back provision if the goals are not reached.
If the snake oil does not work, the treasury gets the money back which can be used for real middle class tax cuts.
Even in an era of unbridled greed, a tax cut for the wealthiest will not cross the finish line. Instead Republicans couched the bill as a job creation initiative that will boost employment and wages. Leave aside that this is a drastic course correction, when we are on a path of low unemployment and finally, wage escalation.
More troubling, past tax cuts have been a gusher for shareholders, but barely a drop in the bucket for workers. With a business man president, and a business friendly Congress, we should demand business like accountability. We should treat the job growth and wage increase promises as stretch goals, and the tax deductions as incentive awards for achieving the goals. So grant the tax deductions but with a claw back provision if the goals are not reached.
If the snake oil does not work, the treasury gets the money back which can be used for real middle class tax cuts.
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
Profiles in Cowardice
The placebo effect accounts for a broad swath of Trump voters continuing to buy the snake oil. They want to believe.
As seasoned practitioners, elected Republicans know better. They know that impulsive behavior, ego, greed, ignorance and disregard for the truth are poisonous.
But, calling out the charlatan would hurt their own sales under the Republican brand. Self sacrifice has given way to self. Public servants are willfully ignoring and excusing the harm to the public and the republic. Only those, like Senators Corker and Flake, who are not standing for election, are standing up.
As seasoned practitioners, elected Republicans know better. They know that impulsive behavior, ego, greed, ignorance and disregard for the truth are poisonous.
But, calling out the charlatan would hurt their own sales under the Republican brand. Self sacrifice has given way to self. Public servants are willfully ignoring and excusing the harm to the public and the republic. Only those, like Senators Corker and Flake, who are not standing for election, are standing up.
Saturday, October 7, 2017
Decertification
A dam has a large hole, but fixing it will nearly bankrupt the government. This seems like a tough decision. Not so, when you have all the information. There are 6 other holes that cannot be fixed. Worse yet, much of the water has already escaped.
This is the decision to be made on certification of Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal. Decertification would allow America to reimpose sanctions, but the other signatories would not. Our sanctions would be ineffectual. Worse yet, Iran has already had its accounts unfrozen adding 150 billion dollars to its coffers.
Decertification, without proof of Iranian violations would bankrupt our foreign policy. Our word would no longer have currency in the system of international relations. Our allies would ignore our policy goals and look elsewhere for leadership.
Unfortunately, our damn president has a hole in his head which is beyond repair.
This is the decision to be made on certification of Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal. Decertification would allow America to reimpose sanctions, but the other signatories would not. Our sanctions would be ineffectual. Worse yet, Iran has already had its accounts unfrozen adding 150 billion dollars to its coffers.
Decertification, without proof of Iranian violations would bankrupt our foreign policy. Our word would no longer have currency in the system of international relations. Our allies would ignore our policy goals and look elsewhere for leadership.
Unfortunately, our damn president has a hole in his head which is beyond repair.
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