Romney's Pathway to Heaven

Why did Romney pick Ryan?  The positives are obvious.  He is a fixed, and seemingly serious, picture which cannot be erased on an etch-a-sketch.  This adds gravitas to the ticket, particularly on the issue of deficit reduction.  He is loved by the base in an election that may hinge more on  turnout than convincing an ever dwindling number of undecided voters.  He puts Wisconsin in play.

But the negatives are equally obvious.  The Ryan budget is something that the President can, and will run against.  The election becomes less of a referendum on the President, and more of a choice between two tickets.  The desired message of jobs and the economy becomes diluted by discussions of Medicare vouchers.  Ryan's social values are another dangerous diversion, which has become obvious, with the Akin detour.

The answer lies with Romney since, if media sources are to be believed, he made the decision himself, over the initial opposition of his staff.  The answer is what I call the pathway to heaven.  We all want to think well of ourselves.  In doing that we tend to over value those things we are good at, and under value qualities we lack.  An analytical person might think more highly of people who are logical than those who are intuitive.

Romney is a number cruncher, and highly values that skill in Ryan.  The Mormon church is central to Romney.  He could not pick another Mormon, but Ryan also strongly values his church.  But the key is that behind the often arrogant sneer, and the fake laugh, Romney is, and always has been, a very handsome man.  Not surprisingly, all of his spokes people, both men and women, are quite attractive.  He over values good looks, so Ryan's six pack abs were the clincher.  With hopefully outdated thinking, Romney believes that his deficit with women will be reduced by Ryan's appearance and that younger voters will identify with his youthful vigor.

Isaac Could Be Stern

Tropical Storm Isaac could make landfall as a hurricane during the Republican Convention.  This sour note is not the only discord for Romney and the convention.  Romney may wish he had a solo, instead of a duet backed by the Republican chorus.

The libretto for the past two Republican Conventions supported a Constitutional amendment outlawing abortions even in the case of rape or incest.  A repeat performance at this convention would have drawn scant media attention but, enter Akin stage right.  The spotlight on this issue detracts and distracts from Romney's economic theme.

Having Ryan playing base reinforces the problem.  Ryan has co-sponsored legislation with Akin which distinguished forcible rape from other forms of rape.  He also joined Akin on the proposed "Sanctity of Life Act" which defines personhood as beginning at the time of conception.  Would women be jailed for using IUDs? 

Hopefully, woman and independents will not buy this ticket.

Akin Plunges Head First into Gender Gap

The deadliest gaffe is when a candidate inadvertently tells the truth.  Such is the case with Todd Akin's claim that "legitimate" rape victims do not get pregnant.  Romney, and all other Republicans in close races, live in mortal fear of the gender gap.  This explains the rapid fire denouncement of the remark by so many key Republicans, and the defunding of Akin by the Republican National Committee and American Crossroads.

No doubt some social conservative groups will make up some of the funding, but Akin is in trouble.  Since Missouri had become an increasingly red state, some now consider the race competitive instead of leaning strongly Republican.  Soon they will acknowledge the race is taking on a blue tint.  Republican criticism of Akin helps the critics but hurts the party.  The inevitable McCaskill ads featuring these denouncements will be decisive.

The road to Republican control of the Senate, has always gone through Missouri.  This road block will add at least 2 years to that journey.

Brunch at the Culver Hotel

After a disastrous groupon brunch deal at Maximillian's, I was a bit wary to try a Living Social brunch deal at the Culver Hotel.  I am so happy I over came my misgivings.  First and foremost, the room is gorgeous (for pictures see my blog at http:\\phoodphotospolitics.blogspot.com).   The hotel, which has been in continuous operation since 1924, completed renovations a year ago. 

The service was good, and the food above average, and fairly priced.  The Kobe burger with cheese fries was $14, and the crab cake eggs benedict was $13.  At the eggs, omelettes  and waffles bar, the entrees were $10.  Drinks of course can pad the bill.  Bloody Marys and mimosas are $10 and coffee and tea are $3.50.  All in all quite reasonable prices for the area even without the LS discount.  As an added plus, there was an excellent pianist.

Oasis

On a blistering hot day in Los Angeles, my thoughts turned to an oasis enroute to the white dessert.
(Egypt, 2011)

R/R Plan to Bankrupt Medicare

Paraphrasing Shakespeare, Romney and Ryan come to bury medicare, not to save it.  Under the current iteration of their plan the system will go bankrupt in less than 4 years.

The Obama plan reduces future spending by 716 billion dollars, which helps finance Obamacare, and extends medicare solvency by eight years.  The original Ryan plan had the same future spending reductions, but they financed his proposed tax cuts.  Even with the 716 billion the budget did not come into balance until 2040.  Without that amount Ryan is unable to say when, or if, the budget will balance.  The original plan also increased pharmacy expenses to seniors by reopening the so-called doughnut hole.

The crucial element of the Ryan plan was a voucher system.  For those presently under 55, Medicare was to consist of a fixed dollar amount per month to buy private insurance.  If insurance cost more than that amount, a near certainty, the senior would pay the difference.  Ryan's hope was that competition would force down premium costs.  Having worked more than 30 years as a benefits attorney I have some experience with efforts to reduce health premiums.  It is like pushing on a balloon, you move air around but you do not reduce it.  Further, either seniors would be denied coverage for preexisting conditions or the plan would require insurers to cover all, which would increase costs.  By shifting part of the cost to seniors, a voucher system would reduce medicare expenditures.

Asking future seniors to pay thousands of dollars is not popular.  Eliminating the future reductions in spending sounds good.  Unfortunately, it is a prescription that kills the patient.  Without the cuts,  the medicare trust fund will die in 4 years.  The new twist will shorten the life span.   Romney now proposes to give future seniors a choice between the existing system and vouchers.  This would result in adverse selection.  The healthiest and wealthiest, who use medicare the least, will take the money.  The poorest and sickest, will stay with the program.  The net cost will increase.

The only saving grace is that Romney policies are like Irish weather, if you don't like them wait an hour.

Romney Staff Tells the Truth

The Romney staff is well paid.  They live by the slogan, "loose lips reduce tips."  So I was skeptical when it leaked out that Ryan was picked over staff opposition.  Was Romney actually being bold or was his staff preemptively protecting their reputations in case Ryan hurt the ticket?  Maybe focus groups had shown the methodical Romney needed to appear bold, so a false story was planted with media.

But the leaks have been proven true by events.  In four days Romney has taken 4 positions on the Ryan budget and its approach to Medicare.  Not the well oiled machine you would expect if the staff was on board early.

In politics timing can be  everything.  The Ryan announcement was beautiful and clever.  Virginia is a battleground state, the ship was named after Ryan's home state, Wisconsin.  But it was 9 a.m. Eastern Time on a Saturday.  Half of America was asleep, and the rest, were either on vacation, or watching the Olympics.  Nor could the event be primed for the evening news.  There is no evening news on Saturday.   On short notice it was probably the best time slot they good get.

Perhaps Romney should stick to mendacity.  The truth ill suits him.