Patriotism Litmus Test

The old saw is that partisanship ends at the nation's shore.  The teeth cut deepest with issues of war and nuclear proliferation.  Country must come before party.

A simple litmus test for Republicans is would they support the Iran Treaty if  it was negotiated by a Republican president?  Lindsey Graham prefers war to this treaty.  He may be crackers, but he passes the test.  His jingoism is personal not partisan.

Other Republicans do not fare so well.  They are drowning in their palaver about a better deal.  Only Iranian negotiators know if they could have conceded more and obtained acquiescence from their Supreme Leader.  Complete dismantlement of their nuclear infrastructure was probably a bridge too far.  President Bush offered full recognition and many other concessions in return for dismantlement.  He ran into a brick wall.

The UN and related sanctions only covered nuclear issues.  Only those on our team participating in two years of negotiations know whether our partners would have agreed to bargaining on nonnuclear issues.  But it is unlikely that China and Russia care about our hostages, or the Iranian hostility to Israel.

But whatever might have been, with Russia, China, Great Britain, France, Germany and the EU, agreeing to the deal, sanctions, and the leverage they provide, would erode if Congress blocks the treaty.

Republicans have blithely challenged our President's loyalty to America.  They should look in the mirror before casting the first stone, or risk 7 years bad luck.

GOP is Unfit To Govern

Policy points are hard to score on a partisan field.    The president has needed Barry Sander's moves to reach his goals.  At times he has been gang tackled by a majority GOP.    But clearly he has beat the spread, running up the score in the 4th quarter.

The GOP has faced a stout defense.  Filibusters are formidable up front, and the presidential veto is a roving safety ready to stop any bills that break through.  But the highway bill faces no opposition.  It is a routine call stymied by intramural disputes.  Even the smallest municipal government can get it together to fix potholes.  Not the GOP majority, which has tripped over itself all weekend.  The Party is about to be flagged for too much time.

Republicans are even weaker on foreign policy.  They have committed fouls that could get them kicked out of the league of nations.  Trump has lashed out at Mexico, and China, without opposition from other team members.  Governor Huckabee has gone further, in effect, comparing the leadership of our primary allies, France, Great Britain and Germany, to Hitler.

The season is about to start.  The GOP is not ready for prime time.

Is Netanyahu Bad for American Jews?

Support for Israel has always been bipartisan.  Netanyahu, strolling jauntily on the Republican side of the aisle, casting disdain on a sitting American president, changed that. Netanyahu has opened a painful rift in the American Jewish community.

Although we have more than our share of neocons, Jews overwhelming  punched the chad for Obama.    Now we are asked to choose between the natural home for our progressive views and the Jewish State.  Rancor replaces harmony at many Passover Seders and Thanksgiving gatherings.

Politics makes strange bedfellows, but the bitter morning always comes.  Anti-semitism and support for Israel are not mutually exclusive.  Nixon was a friend of Israel, and even relied on a Jewish Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger.  But the White House tapes feature anti-Semitic rantings.  Nixon was raised as a Quaker.  Be assured that many Evangelicals, the backbone of the GOP, have harsher ramblings and darker thoughts.  Messianic dogma bequeaths support for Israel, but not for Jews.

Evangelicals may thank us for the fire and brimstone of the old testament, but doctrinally deny us passage through the pearly gates.  Heaven can wait.   So can my support for a party of exclusion.

Trump's Paper Thin Skin

The Des Moines Register, the largest paper in first in the nation caucus state of Idaho, called for Trump to exit the presidential race.   When you are preaching to the choir, heretics are not welcome.  The Trump campaign  took away press credentials for an upcoming rally.

Trump's, now certifiably. paper thin skin is legendary.  Who can forget, as much as we may want to, his festering feud with Rosie O'Donnell?  We can look forward to a summer of vigorous vitriol directed towards those who dare to question The Donald.

Watching Trump is a guilty pleasure for progressives.  But if somehow elected, Trump would be a bull in China, Mexico, and the rest of the globe, smashing diplomatic settings and valuable relationships.

As a sometimes bridge player, I bid one no Trump.

Republican Candidates: Liars or Lunatics?

Republican presidential candidates are day one divas.  In 2012 Romney promised to repeal Obamacare on his first day in office.  Not to be outdone,  Walker has promised to repeal the Iran Treaty after swearing the oath of office.  Rubio, Cruz and Bush echo those sentiments.

Are they too young to remember "One (is the loneliest number)" by Three Dog Night?  Neither Russia and China, nor our allies, would renege on the agreement.  It is a near miracle that Hillary Clinton cobbled, and held, together the sanction odd fellows.  We would stand alone with useless unilateral sanctions and no ability to enforce constraints on Iran.

If by some miracle,  a Republican president could rebuild the sanction alliance, Iran would have between a 100 and 150 billion dollars and no treaty obligations.  Is this crop of Republicans just spreading  fertilizer?   I hope so.  Better duplicitous than dumb.

Trickle Down Ballot

Trump's third party refrain is the Hallelujah Chorus for many Democrats.  Unlike recent independent candidacies, a vociferous Trump effort could tip the election.  Congressman John Anderson's 1980 campaign drew equally from both parties.  Perot's constituency slanted slightly Republican, but not enough to matter.  In counterpoint, Trump's anti-immigrant ditty plays solely to the right side of the stage.  Democrats would score a third term.

A nice dance beat, but some lyrics are disturbing.  Trump voters, some of whom might have tuned out the election, will help Republicans maintain majorities in the House and Senate.  Equally disquieting, if they have the attention span to vote for state offices, Trump voters could secure another 10 years of Republican House leadership.

Over the last 3 cycles Democrats, in the aggregate, have outpolled Republicans in the house, but have little to show for it.  A concerted effort by Republicans captured state legislatures and governerships leading up to the 2010 census.  Districts are fine tuned to lilt GOP.

Democrats need to be heard in 2016 and 2018 state elections, to change the tune.

Prager Almost Gets It Right

Dennis Prager, the ultra-conservative that makes all liberal Jews cringe, almost got one right.  Aping the old appeasement allegory, he argues that the only difference between 1938 and 2015 is the names.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/07/21/1938_and_2015_only_the_names_are_different_127468.html

The names are indeed different, Wilt, rather than Neville, Chamberlain.  Obama stands tall, succeeding where two prior administrations have failed.  Obama gave nothing and averted war, a slam dunk.  Iran is getting its own money back, and having sanctions lifted that served their sole purpose.  Neville traded land for empty promises.  Obama gets inspections and destruction of centrifuges and fissionable material.

Prager's trite analogy squirms on two prongs.  First, Iran like 1938 Germany is a bad actor.  Under a Prager foreign policy we would only negotiate agreements with Great Britain and Canada.  Endless reams of  agreements would only benefit paper mills.  Getting hostile powers to step upto the bar is harder, and more meaningful, than buying a friend a drink.

The second prong is the myth of the better deal, covered here at: http://phoodphotospolitics.blogspot.com/2015/07/republican-house-of-cards.html.  Prager, although blessed with the usual compliment of 10 fingers, can only count to two.  Neither the sanctions, nor the treaty, were bilateral.  Prager's path of tighter sanctions leads to a blind alley, not a better agreement.  Miraculously Obama kept  China, Russian, and for that matter, France on the straight and narrow, but a fork in the road was fast approaching.  The deal may not mean to quote Neville,  "Peace in our time," but the alternative is a sure path to war.

Misguided Loyalty

Many Americans act with greater loyalty to a Mideast power than to this county.  What do we call these misguided Americans?  We call them Republicans.  Before reading the treaty, Republicans have treated the words of Netanyahu as gospel, and branded the president elected by Americans, as a heretic.

Reasoned criticism is one thing, lashing out with blind hatred is quite another.

Wall Street Journal Does not Understand Main Street, Tehran

The Wall Street Journal, which always sees Obama proposals through a glass half empty, reasons that pro treaty demonstrations in Tehran signifies a diplomatic victory for Iran. http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-theyre-cheering-in-tehran-1436916912

For a thirsty nation, even lacking running water in some areas, the glass is half full.  That is good for America.  Those who have read the treaty know that it was drafted with heavy water input from nuclear scientists.  If the general public in Iran has the acumen and sophistication to fully understand the treaty, perhaps we should concede world domination now.

The obvious truth is that Iranians want water, food, and electricity, and they want it now.  They believe the lifting of sanctions will improve their standard of living to pre-sanction levels.  If they are right most of the 100 billion dollars will flow to them rather than to terrorist activities.

To quote the song from 'Frozen,' "Let it flow, let it flow."

Deal Means Dems Win 3rd Term

Our multiple daily neon exposure to gas prices is unlike any other component of the cost of living.   Food prices are hidden by sales and consumer choice.  If beef prices are high, chicken may be on sale.   Few of us shop every day.  Cost of housing is at most an annual event.

So it should be no shock that presidential approval ratings closely correlate with gas prices.  The party with high presidential approval ratings retains the White House.  Iranian oil coming on to the market in 2016 will keep gas prices low.

Republican opposition to the treaty may be more partisan than principled.

ISIS Land of Perverts

ISIS proudly proclaims its purposes.  Stoning of women accused of adultery supports the claim of instituting the strictest form of Sharia Law.  Calling itself a caliphate is a strong form of branding.  But except to initiates, ISIS does not proclaim its underlying goal:  institutionalizing sexual perversion.  ISIS is the land of perverts.

According to the ISIS interpretation of their book, the Koran,  raping of captured nine and ten year old girls is sanctioned.  In my book it is pedophilia.   Sexual slavery is fundamental to ISIS.  In a previous blog I outlined the role of sex in ISIS recruitment, and a possible solution: http://phoodphotospolitics.blogspot.com/2015/03/sex-and-single-jihadist.html.  But a recent "Frontline" episode expanded the point.  Sunni women are dominated and controlled, and Yazidi women are openly bought and sold.

So beware the self-righteous, they are raping someone's nine year old daughter.

Republican House of Cards

The alternative to reaching an agreement with Iran is war.  If Iranian development of nuclear weapons is unfettered we would bomb Iran's nuclear sites.  Wisely, the American public does not want another war in the Middle East.  So the Republicans have invented the myth of the better deal.

They would up the ante, overcoming their objections to this deal.  The first objection is that lifting sanctions will enrich Iran.  Since Iran is not our friend, that money may not be used consistent with America's best interests.  But the purpose of sanctions was to bring Iran to the bargaining table.  Time to declare victory.  It worked.  You cannot stop nuclear development and keep the sanctions.

The second, and most substantive, objection is that Iran might cheat.  No tougher inspection regime has ever been imposed, but it is not perfect.  Iran may cheat.  But we did get a snap back provision.  If cheating is discovered, sanctions go back in place automatically.  No United Nations resolution is required.

The third objection is that the agreement does not deter other bad acts by the regime.  The sole goal of the sanctions, and of negotiations, was to deter nuclear development.  The agreement can only be judged on that basis.

The Republicans claim that if they block this deal, they will force concessions.  The Republicans want to bluff with a lowly two pairs, convincing voters that they have a full house.  No better deal is in the offing.  Iranian hardliners may yet block this deal.  But more importantly, there are 5 other players at the table.

We can only effectively walk away with our chips if France, Germany, Great Britain, Russia and China agree to void the hand.  If the other countries lift sanctions, the Republican Congress will be playing solitaire.  Two years of tough negotiations, and tough sanctions, have yielded the best result that Iran would agree to and that Russia, China and our allies would accept.  The Republicans are playing liar's poker.

Shortsighted Republicans Go Nuclear Over Treaty

The Republican opposition to the Nuclear Treaty with Iran is shortsighted.  The fall out from the Republican Mideast policy is all too clear.  In Iraq, tens of thousands of American soldiers were killed or injured, and trillions wasted in pursuit of nonexistent weapons of mass destruction.  The region was destabilized, empowering Iran and ISIS.  Nary a word of criticism, the Republicans were the silent minority.

Fortunately, they have found their voice in time to oppose a treaty that  prevents the development of  real weapons of mass destruction.  If Netanyahu is to be believed, Iran was only 6 months away from having a nuclear weapon.  This treaty delays development for at least 10, and more likely 15 years.

True, Iran will benefit from the lifting of sanctions.  But, the sanctions were imposed to pressure Iran to drop nuclear weapon development.  If development stops, the sanctions are removed.   The treaty even has a snap back provision.  If Iran violates the treaty,  United Nations sanctions are automatically  reimposed.  That is crucial.  We do not need endless haggling to  get a new UN resolution approved.

The alternative is all too clear.  Without the treaty, Iran will obtain nuclear capacity, and we will be forced into another war in the middle east.   Republican foreign policy at its best.

The Burning Bush

Perhaps smoking Bush would be more accurate, and not in a good way.   Jeb is too bland to ignite. But, his recent comments on Cuba, if not quite incendiary, had me seeing red.

"This July 4, reports of a new US Embassy in Havana will legitimize repression in Cuba, not promote the cause of freedom and democracy."

Hypocrisy is why so many Americans are turned off on politics and politicians. Saudi Arabia makes Cuba look like a democratic paradise. Bush's remarks would be understandable if he sought to follow in President Carter's footsteps, by prioritizing human rights issues in foreign policy. But to do that he would have to condemn the human rights abuses in Saudi Arabia.

We will wait a long time for that condemnation. The Bush family has extensive ties to the Saudi's. Compared to the old hat of pandering to Cuban voters in Florida, even a pant suit seems new.