Obama's October (and September) Surprise

Commercial airways in the 60 days preceding the Presidential Election may not be a complete no fly zone for Super Pacs, but at a minimum flights will be limited, expensive, and difficult to change.  Conventional wisdom is wrong.  Super PACs will have less impact than expected.

Under campaign finance law television stations must give each presidential campaign reasonable access, freedom from censorship, and during the 60 days preceding the election, the lowest unit rate available.  Neither super PACs, nor the political parties,  enjoy these advantages.  In fact a television station violates the law if a super PAC is offered a reduced advertising rate (See Federal Election Commission Advisory Opinion 2006-31).  It would be an illegal campaign contribution for a station, e. g. Fox News, to offer a Super Pac reduced rates.

The law should favor the President.  Mitt is expected to catch more Super Pac money, while the President will field more small contributions directly to his campaign.   In the crucial run up to the election, a dollar from the President's campaign will buy more advertising than a dollar from a Romney Super Pac.

Equally important is flexibility.  In the closing days of a campaign resource allocation may change rapidly, a state may come into, or go out of play.  Super PACs have no preferential access to air time.  With the expected deluge of political adds in battle ground states, as well as increased commercial adds during the start of the fall season, advertising time will be limited.  To get on the air super PACs may have to commit, and lock in resources, earlier than the campaigns.  Money may be wasted in states that are no longer battlegrounds.  (To keep up on which states are battlegrounds, and other political news, checkout http://www.politicalwire.com)

Message flexibility is as important as geography.  Campaigns may need to cut an ad at the last minute to confront a new issue.  Since adds from a campaign are free from censorship, stations accept content without review.  Ads from super PACs must be reviewed, which can delay airing of the adds.

The President's surprise is that while less money may be spent by him in the final days of the election, he will have as much, or more, advertising time in battleground states as the challenger.