Obama Bounces Back Redux

On October 24 this blog made a prediction that the third debate coupled with the Obama ground game would result in Obama taking all of the battleground states with the exception of North Carolina and a close call in Florida.  Admittedly, Romney had Sandy blown in his face, but it is still rewarding to get it right. My only error was math.  Without Florida, Obama would have had 303.  Also I said Idaho rather than the swing state of Iowa.  I need an editor.  Still,  let me have a moment to gloat with this reprint.  

Obama Bounces Back

The press is bored with reporting "Mitt's Momentum," hungering for a new story line.  If, as I anticipate, Obama gets a bounce of between one and two percent from the last debate, we will be hearing about the Obama comeback.

Pre-debate Romney held a .9% lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average.  If Obama pulls into an only nominal lead he may coast to victory.  He is currently polling about one percent better in the swing states than the national average.  The time and money devoted to the ground game could be worth as much as an additional one percent in battleground states.  Cumulatively, the result would be Obama taking Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Virgina, Colorado, and having a run at Florida.  Obama would have 313 electoral votes without Florida.

The bounce, if it comes, will be an increase in the percentage of Democrats polling for the President.  Also, perhaps surprisingly, he may narrow the male gender gap, rather than increasing the number of female supporters.

Oh, Virginia

Come out Virginia, don't let me wait.
 Choose Obama, so we won't be up late.
Aw, but sooner or later it comes down to fate.
 Obama might as well be the one.


Virginia will be the first battleground state, with polls closing at 7pm ET, followed by Ohio a half hour later. Virginia is a luxury for Obama, a necessity for Romney.  If Obama wins Virginia it will be a happy ending.

Mercenaries vs. Volunteers

Each candidate has secret weapons.  Romney  has delegated get out the vote to the party.  But as reported by Politico, Koch brothers funded Americans for Prosperity, and other groups, are paying $15 per hour for canvassers and callers to supplement GOP efforts.  These groups are spending,  an estimated, 70 million on GOTV.  Finally, Romney has a jobs plan. 

The President's secret weapon is the cell phone.  Much is said about Obama having many more campaign offices than Romney.  But while the 800 to 300 edge in key states is important, in actuality, Obama has almost 6000 call centers.  Traditionally, a campaign would set up an office with multiple, and often expensive, phone lines.  Volunteers would have to go to the headquarters, which could be some distance, to make calls.

The President's campaign recognized the power of the cell phone.  Almost everyone has unlimited minutes on weekends, and many have unlimited calling, even during the week.  Any room or home with a few sockets for chargers can be a phone bank.

Obama's other secret ingredient is time.  The canvassing operation has been developed through, and since, the last election.  The campaign has a good model of who to contact, and where possible, neighbors are knocking on the doors of prospective voters.

Community organizing, pitted against paid help, is a fitting end to this campaign.

Galluping Home

Obama is a nose ahead in the national polls, coming from slightly behind in the past week.  The third debate was a strong workout, which acted as a tightener.  Obama also benefited from the weather.  He does well on a sloppy track.  "We are all in this together," becomes a powerful message during a national emergency.

 If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a nation to rescue a village.  Mitt's closing tactic of bipartisanship, was sunk by Christie's embrace of Obama, and Bloomberg touting him as the stronger choice. 

Gallup stalled at the poll is the last barrier to Obama pulling away in the RCP national polling average.  An outdated Gallup still has Romney ahead by 5 because  the Sandy track impacted their calls.   A new Gallup Poll will be out tomorrow.  If Obama leads in the national polls he will certainly take Romney to school in the electoral college, in which he enjoys a greater edge.

If you want to bet on Romney, bet him to place.

Obama and Romney Join the American League

National League baseball managers must decide whether to leave a pitcher in, or pull him for a pitch hitter. Resource allocation is a key part of the job.  It is the sixth inning and your team is down a run.  The manager considers how many outs there are, whether anyone is on base, and  how well his pitcher is doing, to make his decision.

Campaign managers once faced the same dilemma.  Gore pulled out of Ohio to spend more money in Florida.  Now campaigns have the designated hitter rule.  Both campaigns are so flush with cash that there is no need for Romney to pull out of  Ohio to try to score in Pennsylvania.  Obama can counter, while still taking a full swing, in all of the swing states.

Royal Delta

I had a wonderful seat at the Breeders Cup on Friday, courtesy of a good friend, and fellow horse owner. The most anticipated race was the Ladies Classic.  Royal Delta was favored to repeat.  But she faced two undefeated mares, and six of her seven opponents shared her front running style.

She won.  She is that good.

Breeders Cup Training Pictures