Single Issue Voters

 Group speak fascinates me.  A couple years ago, receipts, meaning evidence, was solely a black term.  Now it permeates every political commentary.  Organically, post debate, journalists universally referred to Trump as taking the bait.  Indeed he did, with the resulting cat and dog story that has morphed into a million memes.

But the most important moment may have been the Ukraine discussion because it may have created another group of single issue voters.   Single issue voting is emotional.  For many on both sides, abortion is an emotional issue which subsumes all other considerations.  Gun regulation is another such issue.  Conversely, the economy/inflation is the most important issue, but not one that blocks out all other considerations.

As I covered in a prior blog, "Pole Dancing,"  Ukraine/Nato/Putin, can be an over powering topic.  Danger to the homeland is emotional.  As Kamala explained, weakening NATO, and conceding Ukraine to  Russia, is an imminent threat to Poland.  Polish Americans are a huge, up for grabs, voting block in Michigan, Wisconsin, and, most importantly, Pennsylvania.  

If Kamala can win upwards of 80% of the Polish American vote the blue wall will encapsulate her victory.

Popping The Bubble

 Kamala has introduced herself to the electorate with a flawless rollout leading into a nearly perfect convention, and buttressed by a heavy rotation of bio ads in swing states.  The Trump campaign anticipates that the bubble will burst, popped by sharp negative attacks.

But the blue balloon has thicker skin than Trump anticipates.  Rather the red balloon is about to explode.  Trump, aided by a failed assassination, has the highest approval rating of his political career.  To date Harris ads are the soft soap that presents a clean new face to the public.  Soon she will focus the mirror on her opponent.

The public is largely aware of his felony conviction, but more devastating, and less known, is a jury holding him liable for sexual assault.  The gender chasm will be wide and deep.  His pardoning a murder who used his new found freedom to strangle his wife, will not play well with the law and order crowd.  When the air is out of the balloon Trump will have a favorability rating in the mid-thirties.

Harris will win by more than 8 million votes, with nearly 300 electoral college delegates.