Skewering Rice is impractical as well as unseemly. The grains scatter to no good purpose. The sole consequence of her reliance on intelligence community approved talking points, was that for one week, some members of the public thought that Benghazi was part of the spontaneous reaction to an anti-Muslim video that swept through much of the Muslim world. As material became correlated and declassified, the misstatements were corrected.
Susan Rice's Sunday show segments had no policy implications, and resulted in neither loss of property, nor loss of life. Her namesake, Condoleezza Rice, committed a more consequential error, but has been given a non-presidential pardon by Senator McCain.
Condoleezza's pronouncements on Iraq's nuclear capabilities and ambitions, notwithstanding uncertainty in the intelligence community, had far reaching policy implications. Thousands died and hundreds of billions of dollars were spent.
If McCain chooses to lead a rabid pack of Republicans, he should go after bigger game.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Happy Thanksgiving!
We have cause to be thankful. Mitt couldn't catch flies. Murdoch and Akin were not ready for the show, and, the Republican house of cards lost a joker--Allen West.
But, midterms can be tough. We must not allow 2014 to be like 2010. After we finish our turkeys it will soon be time to start stuffing digital envelops.
But, midterms can be tough. We must not allow 2014 to be like 2010. After we finish our turkeys it will soon be time to start stuffing digital envelops.
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Ben Gauzy
Republicans are looking for a smoking gun in an arsenal. Raw intelligence is like numbers, it does not lie, but liars use raw intelligence. Until it is evaluated, synthesized and correlated with other intelligence, raw intelligence is gauzy and shapeless. In the midst of protests sweeping the Muslim world over an anti-Muslim video, it was reasonable to assume a connection to the Benghazi attack. Given the heavy arms used, it was also reasonable to assume terrorist involvement. The two were not mutually exclusive.
After an armed uprising of various groups and militias overthrew Gaddafi, Libya resembles a scene from BoardWalk Empire: "Is that a gun?" gangster Rosetti asks, pulling his piece. "I got a gun... He got a gun ... he got a gun ... EVERYBODY GOT GUNS!" Not surprisingly, Obama has been cautious about arming Syrian rebels for fear of arming extremists.
Condemning Ambassador Rice for relying on intelligence community approved talking points, is a cheap shot. Senator McCain had his high noon moment in 2008, and he lost. Perhaps, given his recent outbursts, it is time for him to ride off into the sunset.
After an armed uprising of various groups and militias overthrew Gaddafi, Libya resembles a scene from BoardWalk Empire: "Is that a gun?" gangster Rosetti asks, pulling his piece. "I got a gun... He got a gun ... he got a gun ... EVERYBODY GOT GUNS!" Not surprisingly, Obama has been cautious about arming Syrian rebels for fear of arming extremists.
Condemning Ambassador Rice for relying on intelligence community approved talking points, is a cheap shot. Senator McCain had his high noon moment in 2008, and he lost. Perhaps, given his recent outbursts, it is time for him to ride off into the sunset.
Friday, November 16, 2012
Mitt Who?
If it did not have to be applied liberally, Romney could market vanishing cream. Romney is a nowhere man. He has no geographic base. He lost his birth state of Michigan, where his father was governor, his home state of Massachusetts, and the situs of his other two homes, New Hampshire and California.
He has no ideological base. Although Goldwater and McGovern suffered crushing defeats, as a leader of an ideological wing, each had a long lasting impact on his party. Romney, not so much -- he had ambition but lacked conviction. His proposed 20% tax cut will go the way of 9-9-9. He offered 5 trillion in tax cuts, but believes he lost because of Obama's "gifts" of low interest rates on student loans, and coverage for young people on their parent's health plan. Mitt was on bended knee with a 5 carat diamond, and the country went for the promise ring.
He might have lead a new, pragmatic, numbers driven wing of the Republican party, but for his analog clock getting cleaned, by Obama's digital campaign.
Most losing candidates have a long accomplished political career which casts a warming light on their exit from the stage. Romney lost when he ran for Senate. His only political service was four years as governor of Massachusetts, the last two of which were devoted to his presidential pretensions. At the end of his term, his popularity was so low that reelection was unlikely.
Decades from now some may remember that Romneycare, was a forerunner of the wildly popular Obamacare. But they will probably attribute it to his much more accomplished father.
He has no ideological base. Although Goldwater and McGovern suffered crushing defeats, as a leader of an ideological wing, each had a long lasting impact on his party. Romney, not so much -- he had ambition but lacked conviction. His proposed 20% tax cut will go the way of 9-9-9. He offered 5 trillion in tax cuts, but believes he lost because of Obama's "gifts" of low interest rates on student loans, and coverage for young people on their parent's health plan. Mitt was on bended knee with a 5 carat diamond, and the country went for the promise ring.
He might have lead a new, pragmatic, numbers driven wing of the Republican party, but for his analog clock getting cleaned, by Obama's digital campaign.
Most losing candidates have a long accomplished political career which casts a warming light on their exit from the stage. Romney lost when he ran for Senate. His only political service was four years as governor of Massachusetts, the last two of which were devoted to his presidential pretensions. At the end of his term, his popularity was so low that reelection was unlikely.
Decades from now some may remember that Romneycare, was a forerunner of the wildly popular Obamacare. But they will probably attribute it to his much more accomplished father.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
The Lawyer and the Warrior
The male ego is an open book with closed captions. John Edwards and General Petraeus have little in common, other than careers in the public eye, and political savvy. For the upper echelon of the military not only fosters competition among the best and the brightest, but also rewards successful interaction with Congress and the Executive Branch.
But for all their differences in nobility of character, and level of self sacrifice, their fall from grace was eerily similar, stemming from the ego, more than the id. Both had an affair with their hagiographers, Edward's with his videographer, and Petraeus, with his biographer. Neither could resist the flattery fueled urge to get down, with the woman who placed him on a pedestal.
Each woman, if the early reports about Paula Broadwell's e-mails are accurate, had a touch of crazy. This can be oddly appealing. But experience teaches, that the very wild craziness that answers every entreaty, in the end, breaks every treaty.
But for all their differences in nobility of character, and level of self sacrifice, their fall from grace was eerily similar, stemming from the ego, more than the id. Both had an affair with their hagiographers, Edward's with his videographer, and Petraeus, with his biographer. Neither could resist the flattery fueled urge to get down, with the woman who placed him on a pedestal.
Each woman, if the early reports about Paula Broadwell's e-mails are accurate, had a touch of crazy. This can be oddly appealing. But experience teaches, that the very wild craziness that answers every entreaty, in the end, breaks every treaty.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Romney's Lament: He Blinded Me With Science
Fittingly, the party that embraces Creationism and rejects global warming, got a cold shoulder from the evolving science of data mining. In this weeks issue of Time, Michael Scherer has an excellent article on the "cave", the windowless room in the Chicago Headquarters where techies crunched data.
The scientific method is to constantly test, and refine assumptions. Through testing, followed by data analysis, the Obama campaign knew who to ask for online contributions, and what message to use in solicitations. One example given by Scherer is that the dinner with George Clooney raffle, showed that women ages 40-49 in close geographic proximity (Southern California) to the dinner were most receptive to lottery solicitations. So an east coast based celebrity, with appeal to that demographic, Sarah Jessica Parker, was chosen for the next dinner raffle.
Algorithms were developed and tested for voters most likely to support Obama. This was used in registration drives. Ad buys, to turn out and persuade voters, were done in house. This allowed precise placement of ads, utilizing polling data, to reach a targeted demographic with a tailored message. Social media was maximized. Someone who had downloaded the Obama app who had friends in swing states was sent a message to forward to five of those friends.
Romney ran a faith based campaign. Unlike science, which revises assumptions to correspond with data, faith is an immovable object. Facts must be revised to fit the assumptions. The guiding assumptions were (1) that Republican enthusiasm would result in a large turnout, (2) disillusionment would drive down Democratic turnout compared to 2008, particularly among minorities and the young. Therefore, if Romney could win independents, he would be president. Romney won independents by 5 points. On election day he, and his campaign, were certain they had won.
Based on the Romney assumptions, most of the public pollsters, whose livelihood depends on accuracy, were wrong because they were oversampling Democrats. The polls were correct. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6 percent. The key is that Obama won moderates by 15 percent while loosing independents by 5. There was only a tiny squishy tootsie roll center of unaffiliated, undecided moderate independents. The rest were hard coated partisan blue or red voters. Some Republicans may have self identified as independents, because they were even more conservative than the GOP.
Romney's one foray into modern electioneering was Orca, an expensive get out the vote mobile app, developed to communicate the voting of targeted voters between headquarters and the field. It was a beached whale. Accepted on faith, it was never field tested. It crashed. The Romney campaign had to rely on CNN for voting information. It could have been worse. They might have needed to depend on Rachel Maddow.
The scientific method is to constantly test, and refine assumptions. Through testing, followed by data analysis, the Obama campaign knew who to ask for online contributions, and what message to use in solicitations. One example given by Scherer is that the dinner with George Clooney raffle, showed that women ages 40-49 in close geographic proximity (Southern California) to the dinner were most receptive to lottery solicitations. So an east coast based celebrity, with appeal to that demographic, Sarah Jessica Parker, was chosen for the next dinner raffle.
Algorithms were developed and tested for voters most likely to support Obama. This was used in registration drives. Ad buys, to turn out and persuade voters, were done in house. This allowed precise placement of ads, utilizing polling data, to reach a targeted demographic with a tailored message. Social media was maximized. Someone who had downloaded the Obama app who had friends in swing states was sent a message to forward to five of those friends.
Romney ran a faith based campaign. Unlike science, which revises assumptions to correspond with data, faith is an immovable object. Facts must be revised to fit the assumptions. The guiding assumptions were (1) that Republican enthusiasm would result in a large turnout, (2) disillusionment would drive down Democratic turnout compared to 2008, particularly among minorities and the young. Therefore, if Romney could win independents, he would be president. Romney won independents by 5 points. On election day he, and his campaign, were certain they had won.
Based on the Romney assumptions, most of the public pollsters, whose livelihood depends on accuracy, were wrong because they were oversampling Democrats. The polls were correct. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6 percent. The key is that Obama won moderates by 15 percent while loosing independents by 5. There was only a tiny squishy tootsie roll center of unaffiliated, undecided moderate independents. The rest were hard coated partisan blue or red voters. Some Republicans may have self identified as independents, because they were even more conservative than the GOP.
Romney's one foray into modern electioneering was Orca, an expensive get out the vote mobile app, developed to communicate the voting of targeted voters between headquarters and the field. It was a beached whale. Accepted on faith, it was never field tested. It crashed. The Romney campaign had to rely on CNN for voting information. It could have been worse. They might have needed to depend on Rachel Maddow.
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Wave Crashes on Democrats
According to Think Progress, "Although a small number of ballots remain to be counted, as of this
writing, votes for a Democratic candidate for the House of
Representatives outweigh votes for Republican candidates... 53,952,240
votes were cast for a Democratic candidate for the House and only
53,402,643 were cast for a Republican -- meaning that Democratic votes
exceed Republican votes by more than half a million."
The 2010 wave election not only gave Republicans control of the House, but the means to keep it. Little talked about is the huge gains made by Republicans in state legislators in 2010, as well as governorships. Redistricting occurs every ten years. State successes enabled Republicans to maximize the Congressional seats they could gain, and retain.
The Tea Party is most effective in small, intimate gatherings. A few dollars, and a couple of volunteers, may not influence a presidential election, but can swing a state assembly seat. Democrats must match that intensity on the local level, so that the House more accurately reflects the country.
The 2010 wave election not only gave Republicans control of the House, but the means to keep it. Little talked about is the huge gains made by Republicans in state legislators in 2010, as well as governorships. Redistricting occurs every ten years. State successes enabled Republicans to maximize the Congressional seats they could gain, and retain.
The Tea Party is most effective in small, intimate gatherings. A few dollars, and a couple of volunteers, may not influence a presidential election, but can swing a state assembly seat. Democrats must match that intensity on the local level, so that the House more accurately reflects the country.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Chamber Made
For the second cycle, ultra conservatives have dusted off Republican incumbents and promising challengers, leaving the Senate chamber in Democratic hands. If only we could get them to clean the House of Representatives.
With Republicans having only ten seats to defend compared to twenty-three for the Democrats, early in the year, many pundits expected a Republican majority. Instead Democrats have two more seats at the table. The five seat majority may be enough to withstand the difficult 2014 midterm election.
Democrats will have twenty senate seats in play, many in red states, compared to thirteen for the Republicans. But then Ms. Clinton could sweep in a super majority, in 2016, when Republicans will have twenty-four seats at risk.
With Republicans having only ten seats to defend compared to twenty-three for the Democrats, early in the year, many pundits expected a Republican majority. Instead Democrats have two more seats at the table. The five seat majority may be enough to withstand the difficult 2014 midterm election.
Democrats will have twenty senate seats in play, many in red states, compared to thirteen for the Republicans. But then Ms. Clinton could sweep in a super majority, in 2016, when Republicans will have twenty-four seats at risk.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Obama Bounces Back Redux
On October 24 this blog made a prediction that the third debate coupled with the Obama ground game would result in Obama taking all of the battleground states with the exception of North Carolina and a close call in Florida. Admittedly, Romney had Sandy blown in his face, but it is still rewarding to get it right. My only error was math. Without Florida, Obama would have had 303. Also I said Idaho rather than the swing state of Iowa. I need an editor. Still, let me have a moment to gloat with this reprint.
The press is bored with reporting "Mitt's Momentum," hungering for a new
story line. If, as I anticipate, Obama gets a bounce of between one
and two percent from the last debate, we will be hearing about the Obama
comeback.
Pre-debate Romney held a .9% lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average. If Obama pulls into an only nominal lead he may coast to victory. He is currently polling about one percent better in the swing states than the national average. The time and money devoted to the ground game could be worth as much as an additional one percent in battleground states. Cumulatively, the result would be Obama taking Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Virgina, Colorado, and having a run at Florida. Obama would have 313 electoral votes without Florida.
The bounce, if it comes, will be an increase in the percentage of Democrats polling for the President. Also, perhaps surprisingly, he may narrow the male gender gap, rather than increasing the number of female supporters.
Obama Bounces Back
Pre-debate Romney held a .9% lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average. If Obama pulls into an only nominal lead he may coast to victory. He is currently polling about one percent better in the swing states than the national average. The time and money devoted to the ground game could be worth as much as an additional one percent in battleground states. Cumulatively, the result would be Obama taking Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Virgina, Colorado, and having a run at Florida. Obama would have 313 electoral votes without Florida.
The bounce, if it comes, will be an increase in the percentage of Democrats polling for the President. Also, perhaps surprisingly, he may narrow the male gender gap, rather than increasing the number of female supporters.
Oh, Virginia
Come out Virginia, don't let me wait.
Choose Obama, so we won't be up late.
Aw, but sooner or later it comes down to fate.
Obama might as well be the one.
Virginia will be the first battleground state, with polls closing at 7pm ET, followed by Ohio a half hour later. Virginia is a luxury for Obama, a necessity for Romney. If Obama wins Virginia it will be a happy ending.
Choose Obama, so we won't be up late.
Aw, but sooner or later it comes down to fate.
Obama might as well be the one.
Virginia will be the first battleground state, with polls closing at 7pm ET, followed by Ohio a half hour later. Virginia is a luxury for Obama, a necessity for Romney. If Obama wins Virginia it will be a happy ending.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Mercenaries vs. Volunteers
Each candidate has secret weapons. Romney has delegated get out the vote to the party. But as reported by Politico, Koch brothers funded Americans for Prosperity, and other groups, are paying $15 per hour for canvassers and callers to supplement GOP efforts. These groups are spending, an estimated, 70 million on GOTV. Finally, Romney has a jobs plan.
The President's secret weapon is the cell phone. Much is said about Obama having many more campaign offices than Romney. But while the 800 to 300 edge in key states is important, in actuality, Obama has almost 6000 call centers. Traditionally, a campaign would set up an office with multiple, and often expensive, phone lines. Volunteers would have to go to the headquarters, which could be some distance, to make calls.
The President's campaign recognized the power of the cell phone. Almost everyone has unlimited minutes on weekends, and many have unlimited calling, even during the week. Any room or home with a few sockets for chargers can be a phone bank.
Obama's other secret ingredient is time. The canvassing operation has been developed through, and since, the last election. The campaign has a good model of who to contact, and where possible, neighbors are knocking on the doors of prospective voters.
Community organizing, pitted against paid help, is a fitting end to this campaign.
The President's secret weapon is the cell phone. Much is said about Obama having many more campaign offices than Romney. But while the 800 to 300 edge in key states is important, in actuality, Obama has almost 6000 call centers. Traditionally, a campaign would set up an office with multiple, and often expensive, phone lines. Volunteers would have to go to the headquarters, which could be some distance, to make calls.
The President's campaign recognized the power of the cell phone. Almost everyone has unlimited minutes on weekends, and many have unlimited calling, even during the week. Any room or home with a few sockets for chargers can be a phone bank.
Obama's other secret ingredient is time. The canvassing operation has been developed through, and since, the last election. The campaign has a good model of who to contact, and where possible, neighbors are knocking on the doors of prospective voters.
Community organizing, pitted against paid help, is a fitting end to this campaign.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Galluping Home
Obama is a nose ahead in the national polls, coming from slightly behind in the past week. The third debate was a strong workout, which acted as a tightener. Obama also benefited from the weather. He does well on a sloppy track. "We are all in this together," becomes a powerful message during a national emergency.
If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a nation to rescue a village. Mitt's closing tactic of bipartisanship, was sunk by Christie's embrace of Obama, and Bloomberg touting him as the stronger choice.
Gallup stalled at the poll is the last barrier to Obama pulling away in the RCP national polling average. An outdated Gallup still has Romney ahead by 5 because the Sandy track impacted their calls. A new Gallup Poll will be out tomorrow. If Obama leads in the national polls he will certainly take Romney to school in the electoral college, in which he enjoys a greater edge.
If you want to bet on Romney, bet him to place.
If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a nation to rescue a village. Mitt's closing tactic of bipartisanship, was sunk by Christie's embrace of Obama, and Bloomberg touting him as the stronger choice.
Gallup stalled at the poll is the last barrier to Obama pulling away in the RCP national polling average. An outdated Gallup still has Romney ahead by 5 because the Sandy track impacted their calls. A new Gallup Poll will be out tomorrow. If Obama leads in the national polls he will certainly take Romney to school in the electoral college, in which he enjoys a greater edge.
If you want to bet on Romney, bet him to place.
Obama and Romney Join the American League
National League baseball managers must decide whether to leave a pitcher in, or pull him for a pitch hitter. Resource allocation is a key part of the job. It is the sixth inning and your team is down a run. The manager considers how many outs there are, whether anyone is on base, and how well his pitcher is doing, to make his decision.
Campaign managers once faced the same dilemma. Gore pulled out of Ohio to spend more money in Florida. Now campaigns have the designated hitter rule. Both campaigns are so flush with cash that there is no need for Romney to pull out of Ohio to try to score in Pennsylvania. Obama can counter, while still taking a full swing, in all of the swing states.
Campaign managers once faced the same dilemma. Gore pulled out of Ohio to spend more money in Florida. Now campaigns have the designated hitter rule. Both campaigns are so flush with cash that there is no need for Romney to pull out of Ohio to try to score in Pennsylvania. Obama can counter, while still taking a full swing, in all of the swing states.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Royal Delta
I had a wonderful seat at the Breeders Cup on Friday, courtesy of a good friend, and fellow horse owner. The most anticipated race was the Ladies Classic. Royal Delta was favored to repeat. But she faced two undefeated mares, and six of her seven opponents shared her front running style.
She won. She is that good.
She won. She is that good.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
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