This is a tough year for pundits. Early on Walker and Paul were touted as top tier candidates. One is gone, and the other is headed for the kiddie table debate.
As Jeb! dipped his foot in the water, pundits assured us that with bags of money, and an elite organization he would cross the streaming media to the nomination. Now he has a better chance of raising hard money poll dancing than poll watching.
Although fascinated with Trump, pundits assured us he was the flavor of the month. Republicans have been eating the same damn thing for 4 months and like it better than ever. To explain the remarkably unfickle GOP, pundits wove a tale of anger.
GOP establishment politicians, after convincing voters that a centrist democratic President is a radical, have been unable to repeal his signature achievement nor reign in his executive powers. The establishment over promised and under delivered. Hostility was furthered, as black, brown, gay, transgender and immigrant became the new white. This explanation has some merit, but it is not the whole truth.
A recent New Hampshire poll was shocking. Absence may indeed make the heart grow fonder. If ultra establishment Romney were in the primary, he would be leading easily with over 30%. He would garner 1/3 of his votes from Trump, taking him down to 20%. He would draw from other candidates, notably Jeb!, taking him from a dismal 9% to a microscopic 3%.
Voters distaste may be for Bush, rather than for the establishment. Trumps allure may not solely be as an outsider. Facts are unimportant to Republicans, who, like Russians, are drawn to a strong man.
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