Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Recall
Actions have consequences. Closing the government over the Affordable Heath Care Act is irresponsible. Recall is a remedy. New Jersey and Wisconsin are two of the states that permit recall of Congressmen. Swing districts in New Jersey held by Republicans are seats 2,3,5 and 7, in Wisconsin they are seats 1, 7 and 8. If you live in one of those districts, please act now.
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
The Danger of Safety
Safe districts are the bane of Democracy. Extremism in the pursuit of job security is a vice. Only a few Congressman are so lacking in intelligence, or so ideologically impure, as to believe that denying health care to millions is important enough to justify shutting down the government or defaulting on our national debt. But their reelection may depend on well postured mendacity.
Money has polluted the system. Presidential elections come as close as we get to pure democracy. Through free media, and lavish spending by both sides on paid media, each candidate has ample opportunity to communicate to the American people. A majority of registered voters go to the polls. Local elections are different. Motivated voters and ultraconservative donors are skewing low turn out elections. The result is Republican legislators have controlled redistricting. In 2012, Democratic congressional candidates received one million more votes than their Republican counterparts. But Republicans retained control of the House.
It is often said that, "All politics are local." Recently that has been painfully true.
Money has polluted the system. Presidential elections come as close as we get to pure democracy. Through free media, and lavish spending by both sides on paid media, each candidate has ample opportunity to communicate to the American people. A majority of registered voters go to the polls. Local elections are different. Motivated voters and ultraconservative donors are skewing low turn out elections. The result is Republican legislators have controlled redistricting. In 2012, Democratic congressional candidates received one million more votes than their Republican counterparts. But Republicans retained control of the House.
It is often said that, "All politics are local." Recently that has been painfully true.
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Russian to Judgement
Idealogical consistency is admirable, political expediency-- not so much. McCain, a decorated veteran, has supported military action under both Republican and Democratic administrations. The Pauls, father and son, have been as forthright in opposing intervention.
Progressives have been challenged. Many oppose bombing as they have opposed other uses of force. While others, including the President, are propelled by concern over the flaunting of the international ban on the use of chemical weapons. But in a corollary to Obama's cost benefit analysis based foreign policy, progressives understand another mercantile concept, you break it, you own it. Last night the president made clear that air strikes would have a limited objective, with responsibility for Syria remaining with Syrians.
Republican chicken hawks are flying in circles. Hatred of the president is the only air beneath their wings. Supporters of unlimited warfare in Iraq, where weapons of mass destruction were an illusion, stridently oppose limited bombings in Syrian, where WMD's are a harsh, deadly reality.
If they oppose a military solution, then clearly these Republicans must support a diplomatic resolution. Again, not so much. They condemn Obama for considering a Russian proposal, which, if sincere and successful, would place Syrian chemical weapons under international control. The rub is not the terms of a possible deal, but that it is a Putin proposal. "We are allowing Russia to dictate American foreign policy," they shout on Fox. Who else? Syria is a Russian client state. Short of pounding Assad in to submission, the only path to the bargaining table is Russian pressure.
Chicken hawks are pooping all over themselves. Hopefully, the smell of mendacity will awaken the electorate.
Progressives have been challenged. Many oppose bombing as they have opposed other uses of force. While others, including the President, are propelled by concern over the flaunting of the international ban on the use of chemical weapons. But in a corollary to Obama's cost benefit analysis based foreign policy, progressives understand another mercantile concept, you break it, you own it. Last night the president made clear that air strikes would have a limited objective, with responsibility for Syria remaining with Syrians.
Republican chicken hawks are flying in circles. Hatred of the president is the only air beneath their wings. Supporters of unlimited warfare in Iraq, where weapons of mass destruction were an illusion, stridently oppose limited bombings in Syrian, where WMD's are a harsh, deadly reality.
If they oppose a military solution, then clearly these Republicans must support a diplomatic resolution. Again, not so much. They condemn Obama for considering a Russian proposal, which, if sincere and successful, would place Syrian chemical weapons under international control. The rub is not the terms of a possible deal, but that it is a Putin proposal. "We are allowing Russia to dictate American foreign policy," they shout on Fox. Who else? Syria is a Russian client state. Short of pounding Assad in to submission, the only path to the bargaining table is Russian pressure.
Chicken hawks are pooping all over themselves. Hopefully, the smell of mendacity will awaken the electorate.
Sunday, September 1, 2013
The Obama Doctrine
Republicans savage Obama's foreign policy as feckless and without structure. They are wrong. Those lovers of business, fail to recognize the application of cost/benefit analysis.
Republicans derided Obama for "leading from behind" in Libya. In b-school Libya would be a triumph. The objectives of regime change and a more friendly government were achieved at little cost and with almost no risk. It is as if GM developed a best selling car with partners and subcontractors bearing all development costs.
Apply those same principles to Republican foreign policy. When performing a cost benefit analysis it is not enough to look at the hoped for best case benefit. The cost, particularly in a worst case scenario, must be quantified. The difficulties experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan were well within the parameters of a worst cast scenario. Under the Obama doctrine we would not have invaded Iraq, and perhaps, would have also avoided the quagmire in Afghanistan.
Syria presents a difficult case precisely because it is not like Libya. Gaddafi had limited support within Libya, and fearing a coup, had weakened and hamstrung the military. Some opposition elements had Western leanings.
Assad has solid support from a portion of the population, and from many in the elite class. The military is modern. Imposing a Libya style no fly zone could result in substantial loss of lives and planes. The opposition is riddled with extremists. The enemy of my enemy is not always my friend. Caution is prudent. Some strike will be made to support the universal ban on the use of chemical weapons. But beyond that, under the Obama doctrine, limited resources will be committed until conditions warrant an investment.
Republicans derided Obama for "leading from behind" in Libya. In b-school Libya would be a triumph. The objectives of regime change and a more friendly government were achieved at little cost and with almost no risk. It is as if GM developed a best selling car with partners and subcontractors bearing all development costs.
Apply those same principles to Republican foreign policy. When performing a cost benefit analysis it is not enough to look at the hoped for best case benefit. The cost, particularly in a worst case scenario, must be quantified. The difficulties experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan were well within the parameters of a worst cast scenario. Under the Obama doctrine we would not have invaded Iraq, and perhaps, would have also avoided the quagmire in Afghanistan.
Syria presents a difficult case precisely because it is not like Libya. Gaddafi had limited support within Libya, and fearing a coup, had weakened and hamstrung the military. Some opposition elements had Western leanings.
Assad has solid support from a portion of the population, and from many in the elite class. The military is modern. Imposing a Libya style no fly zone could result in substantial loss of lives and planes. The opposition is riddled with extremists. The enemy of my enemy is not always my friend. Caution is prudent. Some strike will be made to support the universal ban on the use of chemical weapons. But beyond that, under the Obama doctrine, limited resources will be committed until conditions warrant an investment.
Friday, July 5, 2013
Egypt
The first election is but a glimmer in the eye of lovers of democracy. The second election is the birth of a constitutional democracy. The natural non-violent transfer of power is an institutional milestone. Unfortunately, in Egypt the first election was followed by a c-section. The coup may have been necessary for the life of the nation, but the successful transition to a democratic state remains uncertain.
Will Rogers famously proclaimed, "I am not a member of an organized party, I am a Democrat."
The same can be said of the secular/progressives in Egypt. I was there shortly before the 2011 elections. My guide came from an upper middle class family, and his wife worked for an American subsidiary. He pointed out signs and pictures of the moderate candidate he was certain would be the next president.
Importantly, most supporters of secular government are themselves devout Muslims. Our guide has special dispensation from his Mullah to pray outside of a mosque. He always found time for his prayers. But he wanted economic viability from his government.
Moderates, such as my guide, failed to coalesce behind a single candidate or party. Their vote was scattered, and many refused to vote based on cynicism or political purity. These revolutionaries won the war, but lost the peace. Had secularists united to at least form a necessary part of any coalition, Morsi might have remained in check, negating the need for a coup.
If the military holds promised elections, secularists must learn from their past to secure Egypt's future.
Will Rogers famously proclaimed, "I am not a member of an organized party, I am a Democrat."
The same can be said of the secular/progressives in Egypt. I was there shortly before the 2011 elections. My guide came from an upper middle class family, and his wife worked for an American subsidiary. He pointed out signs and pictures of the moderate candidate he was certain would be the next president.
Importantly, most supporters of secular government are themselves devout Muslims. Our guide has special dispensation from his Mullah to pray outside of a mosque. He always found time for his prayers. But he wanted economic viability from his government.
Moderates, such as my guide, failed to coalesce behind a single candidate or party. Their vote was scattered, and many refused to vote based on cynicism or political purity. These revolutionaries won the war, but lost the peace. Had secularists united to at least form a necessary part of any coalition, Morsi might have remained in check, negating the need for a coup.
If the military holds promised elections, secularists must learn from their past to secure Egypt's future.
Friday, June 28, 2013
The Kindness of Strangers
Once again, moderates and progressives in blue states are recipients of largesse, from their, often strange, brethren in red states. As has been previously discussed, the subsidies in the Affordable Care Act are a boon for those states that agree to expand Medicaid coverage. The result is a wealth transfer from conservative states, that refuse the subsidies, to moderate states that accept them.
The demise of DOMA is matched by the rise of conservative generosity. Marriage is a tax favored institution. Joint tax returns, dependent status, Social Security survivor benefits, tax free wealth transfer at death, and tax free employer paid medical benefits, flow from the union. In time, this too will result in a transfer of wealth from conservative states, which prohibit same sex marriages, to blue states which allow them. What the Supreme Court has placed together, let no CPA cast assunder.
In the near term, the wedding industry is booming in same sex marriage states .
The demise of DOMA is matched by the rise of conservative generosity. Marriage is a tax favored institution. Joint tax returns, dependent status, Social Security survivor benefits, tax free wealth transfer at death, and tax free employer paid medical benefits, flow from the union. In time, this too will result in a transfer of wealth from conservative states, which prohibit same sex marriages, to blue states which allow them. What the Supreme Court has placed together, let no CPA cast assunder.
In the near term, the wedding industry is booming in same sex marriage states .
Sunday, May 19, 2013
Good Mood
For twenty-five percent of Americans, Benghazi is the worst scandal in American history. Incomplete talking points tragically resulted in one week of uncertainty. By comparison, overstating and misreading intelligence reports about weapons of mass destruction, resulted in ten thousand dead Americans, countless more injured, and the expenditure of 2 trillion.
This blog has seldom been charitable to ultra conservatives. But such callous disregard for dead and injured warriors, and waste of American treasure, could easily be called unpatriotic, or even traitorous. But being in a good mood, I will merely call it stupid.
Friday, April 26, 2013
War Tax
Public opinion has been sharply divided on the Afghani and Iraqi conflicts, as it was with the Viet Nam War. But the public reaction to the recent wars has been far more muted.
Other differences abound, but fundamentally the American public has no skin in the game. The draft made the Viet Nam War personal for men at, or near, draft age, and for their families. Going back to WWII, everyone was impacted. Rationing, and diversion of resources to the war effort, extended the war to families without active duty participants. The recent conflicts are remote control wars. Our only involvement is the nano second it takes to change the channel, if the wars are mentioned on the nightly news.
Skin in the game can lead to fervent patriotism, and common sacrifice, as in WWII, or to the massive protests evident during the Viet Nam era. But one way or another, the public is involved. In a Democracy, the expenditure of lives and resources should be predicated on broad public support.
To ensure public involvement, I would propose that any prolonged military involvements be paid for through a duly labeled war tax surcharge. This promotes intergenerational fairness. The cost of current policy should not burden the next generation. But most importantly, the public would literally be buying into the war. Public indifference will be replaced by a cost benefit analysis.
Other differences abound, but fundamentally the American public has no skin in the game. The draft made the Viet Nam War personal for men at, or near, draft age, and for their families. Going back to WWII, everyone was impacted. Rationing, and diversion of resources to the war effort, extended the war to families without active duty participants. The recent conflicts are remote control wars. Our only involvement is the nano second it takes to change the channel, if the wars are mentioned on the nightly news.
Skin in the game can lead to fervent patriotism, and common sacrifice, as in WWII, or to the massive protests evident during the Viet Nam era. But one way or another, the public is involved. In a Democracy, the expenditure of lives and resources should be predicated on broad public support.
To ensure public involvement, I would propose that any prolonged military involvements be paid for through a duly labeled war tax surcharge. This promotes intergenerational fairness. The cost of current policy should not burden the next generation. But most importantly, the public would literally be buying into the war. Public indifference will be replaced by a cost benefit analysis.
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
City Renewal Fails
Mon Land Hot Pot City has long been one of my go to restaurants. It is a short stroll to my favorite foot massage place, has a great cooking broth, and ethereal lamb dumplings, which are even better when dipped in the broth. No reason to review a known commodity, so my trusty 7D stayed at home.
But the restaurant is under new ownership. The decor is slightly classier--gone are the Jetson era atomic lights on the roof. But to quote George Clinton, "We want the funk," or at least I do. The changes are not all bad. Barbecue items have been added to the menu. In honor of the 10 year anniversary BBQ lamb shank was free. Even for a lover of cumin, the cumin and salt based rub was heavy handed. The meat was a bit tough and gristly, but was still good. The same seasoning was more incongruous on the corn, but it was still tasty.
But we do not come to a hot pot joint for joints of lamb. We come for the broth. You have a choice of hot or mild, but most people choose both with a metal divider separating the two. The broth has changed for the worse. It is much too salty. Since salt is the least expensive seasoning I expect that its heavy use is in part to distract from the reduction of other, more expensive, herbs and condiments. The one improvement is that 3 grades of beef are now offered. You can pay more and get superior or angus beef instead of the standard fare.
The biggest disappointment was the lamb dumplings. The dough is heavier, and the filling has much less flavor. I will not be back. It is not bad, but there are many better hot pot places.
But the restaurant is under new ownership. The decor is slightly classier--gone are the Jetson era atomic lights on the roof. But to quote George Clinton, "We want the funk," or at least I do. The changes are not all bad. Barbecue items have been added to the menu. In honor of the 10 year anniversary BBQ lamb shank was free. Even for a lover of cumin, the cumin and salt based rub was heavy handed. The meat was a bit tough and gristly, but was still good. The same seasoning was more incongruous on the corn, but it was still tasty.
But we do not come to a hot pot joint for joints of lamb. We come for the broth. You have a choice of hot or mild, but most people choose both with a metal divider separating the two. The broth has changed for the worse. It is much too salty. Since salt is the least expensive seasoning I expect that its heavy use is in part to distract from the reduction of other, more expensive, herbs and condiments. The one improvement is that 3 grades of beef are now offered. You can pay more and get superior or angus beef instead of the standard fare.
The biggest disappointment was the lamb dumplings. The dough is heavier, and the filling has much less flavor. I will not be back. It is not bad, but there are many better hot pot places.
Sunday, April 14, 2013
Slam Dunk
Now for something entirely different. Maybe I am strange, but I would rather watch a pass above the rim to Blake Griffin slammed, than an uncontested swish from 25 feet. Incentives work. Let's make slams worth 3 points, perhaps with the exception of uncontested breakaways. NBA games will be more fun.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
The Last Roundup?
If you go to Petco you will be asked if you want to roundup your purchase to the nearest dollar, with the spare cents going to an animal charity. Gun shops do the same thing. The NRA is the beneficiary.
This explains much. On closing background check loopholes, and perhaps even on limiting the number of rounds in a magazine, the NRA position is not that of its membership. The NRA consistently opposes any legislation that would retard gun, or ammunition, sales.
Of course, every gun manufacturer contributes upwards of a million dollars to the NRA. But that is still probably less than 10 per cent of the NRA budget. Gun shops riding in the roundup account for more money than given by manufacturers. Gun sales are good business for the NRA.
Many industries thrive on addiction. Tobacco is the most obvious. The so called "regulars" in many local bars and liquor stores are alcoholics. The "black helicopter" fringe group are gun shop "regulars."
Based on latest figures less than 1/3 of adults own guns. But the number of guns in America exceeds the number of adults. Some people have a lot of guns.
Ammunition is even more important. Unless someone is very unlucky, a gun for self protection will not have to be reloaded often. Hunters and target shooters are heavy users. But those stockpiling to defend themselves from the encroachment of the "feds," are steady customers.
Gun owners need better representation.
This explains much. On closing background check loopholes, and perhaps even on limiting the number of rounds in a magazine, the NRA position is not that of its membership. The NRA consistently opposes any legislation that would retard gun, or ammunition, sales.
Of course, every gun manufacturer contributes upwards of a million dollars to the NRA. But that is still probably less than 10 per cent of the NRA budget. Gun shops riding in the roundup account for more money than given by manufacturers. Gun sales are good business for the NRA.
Many industries thrive on addiction. Tobacco is the most obvious. The so called "regulars" in many local bars and liquor stores are alcoholics. The "black helicopter" fringe group are gun shop "regulars."
Based on latest figures less than 1/3 of adults own guns. But the number of guns in America exceeds the number of adults. Some people have a lot of guns.
Ammunition is even more important. Unless someone is very unlucky, a gun for self protection will not have to be reloaded often. Hunters and target shooters are heavy users. But those stockpiling to defend themselves from the encroachment of the "feds," are steady customers.
Gun owners need better representation.
Thursday, April 4, 2013
Thrust and Perry
Oops, Governor Perry should be on guard. Everything is bigger in Texas, including the number without health insurance, 6.2 million. Hook 'em horns, as long as they are not gauging women, children and minorities.
Perry's first calling must be the welfare of Texans. At no cost to the state, the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, would insure millions. Already insured Texans would also benefit. Hospitals fighting to stay open would not be casualties of the cost of treating the uninsured.
Having willfully ignored the needs of Texans, Perry should be impeached. If this also enlists millions of Hispanics before the Congressional elections, oh well.
Perry's first calling must be the welfare of Texans. At no cost to the state, the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, would insure millions. Already insured Texans would also benefit. Hospitals fighting to stay open would not be casualties of the cost of treating the uninsured.
Having willfully ignored the needs of Texans, Perry should be impeached. If this also enlists millions of Hispanics before the Congressional elections, oh well.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Democratic Wedgie
With Obama at the head of the ticket casual voters became committed. The Republican Party took such a sharp, sudden right turn, that they lost the few moderates who were trying to follow.
In 2014 Obama will not be on the ticket. Turning out the base, let alone expanding it, will be a challenge. Enter gay rights stage left. If as expected, the court issues only a limited ruling on gay marriage, Democrats will have a morally, and politically, strong issue in many states. Republicans, historically have had the edge with social wedge issues. If Democrats get gay marriage initiatives on key state ballots a stormy campaign may end in a glorious rainbow.
In 2014 Obama will not be on the ticket. Turning out the base, let alone expanding it, will be a challenge. Enter gay rights stage left. If as expected, the court issues only a limited ruling on gay marriage, Democrats will have a morally, and politically, strong issue in many states. Republicans, historically have had the edge with social wedge issues. If Democrats get gay marriage initiatives on key state ballots a stormy campaign may end in a glorious rainbow.
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Don't Ask, Don't Tell
Pollsters are failing to ask key questions in the gun control debate. While fringe elements in the gun debate are often defiled, they are not quantified.
We all know that assault weapons and 100 round clips are overkill for hunters, or for home security. We do not know how many people believe that military grade weapons and large clips may be necessary to protect citizens' freedom from overreach by the federal government. Nor do we know how many Americans believe that expanded background checks of gun purchasers will be used to reduce the rights of law abiding citizens.
We should ask.
We all know that assault weapons and 100 round clips are overkill for hunters, or for home security. We do not know how many people believe that military grade weapons and large clips may be necessary to protect citizens' freedom from overreach by the federal government. Nor do we know how many Americans believe that expanded background checks of gun purchasers will be used to reduce the rights of law abiding citizens.
We should ask.
Friday, March 22, 2013
Highest Compliment
Thank you. The site has generated enough traffic that you will be redirected if you leave the "p" out of blogspot. Someone has spent the money to try to capture my readers.
As you know this site has been dark for sometime. I was in SouthEast Asia for 5 weeks, and upon my return took some time to get back up to speed. But now I have an even better excuse. I am working on an ebook tentatively titled "SouthEast Asia on a Rope." I am too old, and too tired. to travel on a shoestring.
I hope that those of you who have kept, "Romney's Lament: He blinded me with Science," a steady seller on Amazon, will consider the new book. It will be coming to a computer, or kindle, near you in the not too distant future.
As you know this site has been dark for sometime. I was in SouthEast Asia for 5 weeks, and upon my return took some time to get back up to speed. But now I have an even better excuse. I am working on an ebook tentatively titled "SouthEast Asia on a Rope." I am too old, and too tired. to travel on a shoestring.
I hope that those of you who have kept, "Romney's Lament: He blinded me with Science," a steady seller on Amazon, will consider the new book. It will be coming to a computer, or kindle, near you in the not too distant future.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
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