We have cause to be thankful. Mitt couldn't catch flies. Murdoch and Akin were not ready for the show, and, the Republican house of cards lost a joker--Allen West.
But, midterms can be tough. We must not allow 2014 to be like 2010. After we finish our turkeys it will soon be time to start stuffing digital envelops.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Ben Gauzy
Republicans are looking for a smoking gun in an arsenal. Raw intelligence is like numbers, it does not lie, but liars use raw intelligence. Until it is evaluated, synthesized and correlated with other intelligence, raw intelligence is gauzy and shapeless. In the midst of protests sweeping the Muslim world over an anti-Muslim video, it was reasonable to assume a connection to the Benghazi attack. Given the heavy arms used, it was also reasonable to assume terrorist involvement. The two were not mutually exclusive.
After an armed uprising of various groups and militias overthrew Gaddafi, Libya resembles a scene from BoardWalk Empire: "Is that a gun?" gangster Rosetti asks, pulling his piece. "I got a gun... He got a gun ... he got a gun ... EVERYBODY GOT GUNS!" Not surprisingly, Obama has been cautious about arming Syrian rebels for fear of arming extremists.
Condemning Ambassador Rice for relying on intelligence community approved talking points, is a cheap shot. Senator McCain had his high noon moment in 2008, and he lost. Perhaps, given his recent outbursts, it is time for him to ride off into the sunset.
After an armed uprising of various groups and militias overthrew Gaddafi, Libya resembles a scene from BoardWalk Empire: "Is that a gun?" gangster Rosetti asks, pulling his piece. "I got a gun... He got a gun ... he got a gun ... EVERYBODY GOT GUNS!" Not surprisingly, Obama has been cautious about arming Syrian rebels for fear of arming extremists.
Condemning Ambassador Rice for relying on intelligence community approved talking points, is a cheap shot. Senator McCain had his high noon moment in 2008, and he lost. Perhaps, given his recent outbursts, it is time for him to ride off into the sunset.
Friday, November 16, 2012
Mitt Who?
If it did not have to be applied liberally, Romney could market vanishing cream. Romney is a nowhere man. He has no geographic base. He lost his birth state of Michigan, where his father was governor, his home state of Massachusetts, and the situs of his other two homes, New Hampshire and California.
He has no ideological base. Although Goldwater and McGovern suffered crushing defeats, as a leader of an ideological wing, each had a long lasting impact on his party. Romney, not so much -- he had ambition but lacked conviction. His proposed 20% tax cut will go the way of 9-9-9. He offered 5 trillion in tax cuts, but believes he lost because of Obama's "gifts" of low interest rates on student loans, and coverage for young people on their parent's health plan. Mitt was on bended knee with a 5 carat diamond, and the country went for the promise ring.
He might have lead a new, pragmatic, numbers driven wing of the Republican party, but for his analog clock getting cleaned, by Obama's digital campaign.
Most losing candidates have a long accomplished political career which casts a warming light on their exit from the stage. Romney lost when he ran for Senate. His only political service was four years as governor of Massachusetts, the last two of which were devoted to his presidential pretensions. At the end of his term, his popularity was so low that reelection was unlikely.
Decades from now some may remember that Romneycare, was a forerunner of the wildly popular Obamacare. But they will probably attribute it to his much more accomplished father.
He has no ideological base. Although Goldwater and McGovern suffered crushing defeats, as a leader of an ideological wing, each had a long lasting impact on his party. Romney, not so much -- he had ambition but lacked conviction. His proposed 20% tax cut will go the way of 9-9-9. He offered 5 trillion in tax cuts, but believes he lost because of Obama's "gifts" of low interest rates on student loans, and coverage for young people on their parent's health plan. Mitt was on bended knee with a 5 carat diamond, and the country went for the promise ring.
He might have lead a new, pragmatic, numbers driven wing of the Republican party, but for his analog clock getting cleaned, by Obama's digital campaign.
Most losing candidates have a long accomplished political career which casts a warming light on their exit from the stage. Romney lost when he ran for Senate. His only political service was four years as governor of Massachusetts, the last two of which were devoted to his presidential pretensions. At the end of his term, his popularity was so low that reelection was unlikely.
Decades from now some may remember that Romneycare, was a forerunner of the wildly popular Obamacare. But they will probably attribute it to his much more accomplished father.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
The Lawyer and the Warrior
The male ego is an open book with closed captions. John Edwards and General Petraeus have little in common, other than careers in the public eye, and political savvy. For the upper echelon of the military not only fosters competition among the best and the brightest, but also rewards successful interaction with Congress and the Executive Branch.
But for all their differences in nobility of character, and level of self sacrifice, their fall from grace was eerily similar, stemming from the ego, more than the id. Both had an affair with their hagiographers, Edward's with his videographer, and Petraeus, with his biographer. Neither could resist the flattery fueled urge to get down, with the woman who placed him on a pedestal.
Each woman, if the early reports about Paula Broadwell's e-mails are accurate, had a touch of crazy. This can be oddly appealing. But experience teaches, that the very wild craziness that answers every entreaty, in the end, breaks every treaty.
But for all their differences in nobility of character, and level of self sacrifice, their fall from grace was eerily similar, stemming from the ego, more than the id. Both had an affair with their hagiographers, Edward's with his videographer, and Petraeus, with his biographer. Neither could resist the flattery fueled urge to get down, with the woman who placed him on a pedestal.
Each woman, if the early reports about Paula Broadwell's e-mails are accurate, had a touch of crazy. This can be oddly appealing. But experience teaches, that the very wild craziness that answers every entreaty, in the end, breaks every treaty.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Romney's Lament: He Blinded Me With Science
Fittingly, the party that embraces Creationism and rejects global warming, got a cold shoulder from the evolving science of data mining. In this weeks issue of Time, Michael Scherer has an excellent article on the "cave", the windowless room in the Chicago Headquarters where techies crunched data.
The scientific method is to constantly test, and refine assumptions. Through testing, followed by data analysis, the Obama campaign knew who to ask for online contributions, and what message to use in solicitations. One example given by Scherer is that the dinner with George Clooney raffle, showed that women ages 40-49 in close geographic proximity (Southern California) to the dinner were most receptive to lottery solicitations. So an east coast based celebrity, with appeal to that demographic, Sarah Jessica Parker, was chosen for the next dinner raffle.
Algorithms were developed and tested for voters most likely to support Obama. This was used in registration drives. Ad buys, to turn out and persuade voters, were done in house. This allowed precise placement of ads, utilizing polling data, to reach a targeted demographic with a tailored message. Social media was maximized. Someone who had downloaded the Obama app who had friends in swing states was sent a message to forward to five of those friends.
Romney ran a faith based campaign. Unlike science, which revises assumptions to correspond with data, faith is an immovable object. Facts must be revised to fit the assumptions. The guiding assumptions were (1) that Republican enthusiasm would result in a large turnout, (2) disillusionment would drive down Democratic turnout compared to 2008, particularly among minorities and the young. Therefore, if Romney could win independents, he would be president. Romney won independents by 5 points. On election day he, and his campaign, were certain they had won.
Based on the Romney assumptions, most of the public pollsters, whose livelihood depends on accuracy, were wrong because they were oversampling Democrats. The polls were correct. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6 percent. The key is that Obama won moderates by 15 percent while loosing independents by 5. There was only a tiny squishy tootsie roll center of unaffiliated, undecided moderate independents. The rest were hard coated partisan blue or red voters. Some Republicans may have self identified as independents, because they were even more conservative than the GOP.
Romney's one foray into modern electioneering was Orca, an expensive get out the vote mobile app, developed to communicate the voting of targeted voters between headquarters and the field. It was a beached whale. Accepted on faith, it was never field tested. It crashed. The Romney campaign had to rely on CNN for voting information. It could have been worse. They might have needed to depend on Rachel Maddow.
The scientific method is to constantly test, and refine assumptions. Through testing, followed by data analysis, the Obama campaign knew who to ask for online contributions, and what message to use in solicitations. One example given by Scherer is that the dinner with George Clooney raffle, showed that women ages 40-49 in close geographic proximity (Southern California) to the dinner were most receptive to lottery solicitations. So an east coast based celebrity, with appeal to that demographic, Sarah Jessica Parker, was chosen for the next dinner raffle.
Algorithms were developed and tested for voters most likely to support Obama. This was used in registration drives. Ad buys, to turn out and persuade voters, were done in house. This allowed precise placement of ads, utilizing polling data, to reach a targeted demographic with a tailored message. Social media was maximized. Someone who had downloaded the Obama app who had friends in swing states was sent a message to forward to five of those friends.
Romney ran a faith based campaign. Unlike science, which revises assumptions to correspond with data, faith is an immovable object. Facts must be revised to fit the assumptions. The guiding assumptions were (1) that Republican enthusiasm would result in a large turnout, (2) disillusionment would drive down Democratic turnout compared to 2008, particularly among minorities and the young. Therefore, if Romney could win independents, he would be president. Romney won independents by 5 points. On election day he, and his campaign, were certain they had won.
Based on the Romney assumptions, most of the public pollsters, whose livelihood depends on accuracy, were wrong because they were oversampling Democrats. The polls were correct. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6 percent. The key is that Obama won moderates by 15 percent while loosing independents by 5. There was only a tiny squishy tootsie roll center of unaffiliated, undecided moderate independents. The rest were hard coated partisan blue or red voters. Some Republicans may have self identified as independents, because they were even more conservative than the GOP.
Romney's one foray into modern electioneering was Orca, an expensive get out the vote mobile app, developed to communicate the voting of targeted voters between headquarters and the field. It was a beached whale. Accepted on faith, it was never field tested. It crashed. The Romney campaign had to rely on CNN for voting information. It could have been worse. They might have needed to depend on Rachel Maddow.
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Wave Crashes on Democrats
According to Think Progress, "Although a small number of ballots remain to be counted, as of this
writing, votes for a Democratic candidate for the House of
Representatives outweigh votes for Republican candidates... 53,952,240
votes were cast for a Democratic candidate for the House and only
53,402,643 were cast for a Republican -- meaning that Democratic votes
exceed Republican votes by more than half a million."
The 2010 wave election not only gave Republicans control of the House, but the means to keep it. Little talked about is the huge gains made by Republicans in state legislators in 2010, as well as governorships. Redistricting occurs every ten years. State successes enabled Republicans to maximize the Congressional seats they could gain, and retain.
The Tea Party is most effective in small, intimate gatherings. A few dollars, and a couple of volunteers, may not influence a presidential election, but can swing a state assembly seat. Democrats must match that intensity on the local level, so that the House more accurately reflects the country.
The 2010 wave election not only gave Republicans control of the House, but the means to keep it. Little talked about is the huge gains made by Republicans in state legislators in 2010, as well as governorships. Redistricting occurs every ten years. State successes enabled Republicans to maximize the Congressional seats they could gain, and retain.
The Tea Party is most effective in small, intimate gatherings. A few dollars, and a couple of volunteers, may not influence a presidential election, but can swing a state assembly seat. Democrats must match that intensity on the local level, so that the House more accurately reflects the country.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Chamber Made
For the second cycle, ultra conservatives have dusted off Republican incumbents and promising challengers, leaving the Senate chamber in Democratic hands. If only we could get them to clean the House of Representatives.
With Republicans having only ten seats to defend compared to twenty-three for the Democrats, early in the year, many pundits expected a Republican majority. Instead Democrats have two more seats at the table. The five seat majority may be enough to withstand the difficult 2014 midterm election.
Democrats will have twenty senate seats in play, many in red states, compared to thirteen for the Republicans. But then Ms. Clinton could sweep in a super majority, in 2016, when Republicans will have twenty-four seats at risk.
With Republicans having only ten seats to defend compared to twenty-three for the Democrats, early in the year, many pundits expected a Republican majority. Instead Democrats have two more seats at the table. The five seat majority may be enough to withstand the difficult 2014 midterm election.
Democrats will have twenty senate seats in play, many in red states, compared to thirteen for the Republicans. But then Ms. Clinton could sweep in a super majority, in 2016, when Republicans will have twenty-four seats at risk.
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