Hats Off Thumbs Down

When the state focuses its immense power on an individual, a lawyer must step in to ensure the government does not overstep.  For that reason I never question a lawyer defending even the most heinous criminal.  Everyone is entitled to a defense.

But not everyone is entitled to a campaign manager.  Therefore I give thumbs down to the immensely talented Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles for heading Trump's campaign.  They know he is at best incompetent, and at worst, dangerous.

But I tip my hat to the brilliance of their strategy.   The Harris team ran a well executed traditional campaign.   LaCivita and Wiles did not have a traditional candidate.  So like a successful football coach, they altered the system to fit the talent.  The hyper masculine campaign suited their boisterous candidate.  

It worked.  Trump got a hefty majority of new voters.  Young men ascended from basements, got off the couch, and voted.  The educational and economic advancement of women has tilted the playing field.  Young men are confused by the delta between the fantasy of ubiquitous porn and the reality of "Me Too."  Too toxic to get laid, and too proud, or confused, to change, their frustration made them a perfect target.

Also, Trump's conflicting positions on abortion, was more art than ineptitude.  His campaign muddied the waters enough to dull the Democrat's most potent weapon.

The ad campaign was brilliant.  A moral thumbs down on the anti-trans ads that heightened the risk to a vulnerable community, but kudos for the political brilliance.  Virtually all Americans oppose violence against the trans community, and most Americans support equality.  But the dividing line is pronouns.  So that the 1% can feel seen, the 99% must announce their pronouns.  For middle America this makes Democrats seem out of touch, and more concerned about a tiny minority than with the working class. 

Campaigning and governing are wildly different.  Republican over reach and miscues may allow a dramatic come back in the Midterms.

Post Mortem

 Kamala had an amazing take off from a short run way.  I will not criticize her campaign.  She moved to the center hoping to pickup Haley republicans and many independents.  She emphasized reproductive rights, a winning issue in 2022.  The threat to Democracy was key, and surprisingly was the number one issue in exit polls.  She won the money race, established a great ground game, and nimbly exploited errors by the opposition.  Her team recognized this was a change election, using slogans such as, "Not going back," "New way forward", and  "Turn the page".

Unfortunately, she was tied to the immensely successful, and decidedly unpopular, Biden administration. Three quarters of voters rated Trump most likely to bring needed change.   We are not alone.  Post pandemic rage has riled governing parties in all western democracies.

As children we were told that sticks and stones can break our bones, but words can never hurt us.  As adults we have learned that is untrue.  Trump's "they, them" ads appealed to more than anti-trans bigotry.  The message was that the left cares more about pronouns than the real problems of the working class.  It makes democrats seem out of touch.

When I call to make an appointment with a lawyer I do not need to know the preferred pronoun of the secretary or receptionist.  Looking at a play bill I want to know about the past performances of an actor on the big screen, on the increasingly larger, small screen, and on the stage.  Preferred pronoun is of no importance.  

LatinX is another problem.  Many latinos hate the term that white liberals have imposed on them.

In retrospect the only chance for Democrats was Biden announcing early that he was not seeking a second term.  Although angering black women, the heart and soul of the party, primaries might have produced a candidate other than Kamala.  If it was Josh Shapiro, we might have won.  He is decidedly popular in the key, keystone state.  His message is tailored to working class voters and he is male.  Shamefully many men and, quite a few women, are unwilling to vote for a woman for president.

So Wrong

 The champagne is back in the basement.  I will need the hard stuff over the next 4 years.  I could not have been more wrong.  Hard to believe the most racist candidate since George Wallace got a huge majority of Latino men, and a healthy chunk of black men.  The Bro strategy worked.  He won males 18-29 bt 11 points compared to Biden winning the group by 15.  He muddied the water enough on abortion that it was a less potent issue than expected.  Sisterhood did not prevail.  Whatever his flaws as a candidate, this time he had a professional team that hit issues that worked.  The anti-trans ads were shamefully potent.

Collective amnesia will take a while to explain.  People rate the chaotic Trump presidency at 48, and the successful Biden term at 41.

In retrospect Kamala needed to distance herself from Biden, a touchy task.  I still wonder why they never ran ads that Trump was held liable by a jury for sexual assault.  The appeal to suburban women failed.  Trump got marginally more Democratic voters than Kamala's share of Republicans.  She only won independents by 5%.  But maybe nothing mattered because American is unwilling to elect a Black woman.

If there are midterms, perhaps we can extract our revenge after people are reminded of how Trump governs.

For now I will be watching a lot of football.

Final Prediction

 Kamala Harris wins 51% to 47%, with 292 or more electoral votes.   All three forecast models, 538, Economist and Nate Silver, show a 50/50 election.  That does not belie my prediction.  Two weeks ago all three gave Trump a small edge.  Trend lines matter. 

Another poll is seminal.  The well respected Selzer poll shows Harris up 3 points in Iowa.  That is an outlier, and inconsistent with each campaign's internal polling, or the candidates would be in the state. But it shows a 7 point move since September in the same poll.  Trend lines matter. Iowa bodes well for blue wall states.

Early voting has an anomaly.  Polling cross tabs, which admittedly have a large margin of error, all show Kamala ahead with early voters.  But unlike 2020, virtually as many Republicans as Democrats have early voted.  Reconciliation means that either a good number of Republicans are voting for Kamala, and/or she is killing it with independents.

Typically women out vote men 52/48.  Early voting is running 53/44, with larger margins in the seven battleground states except for Nevada and Arizona.  Harris has a substantial polling lead with women, as Trump does with men.  Same day voting may revert to the mean, but if we end up with anything like 54/46, Harris will prevail.

On the less quantitative front, Trump's closing message is muddled with an island of garbage and a firing squad for Liz Cheney.  Trump has ceded middle ground and Harris has jumped in calling for common sense solutions and an end to divisive politics.

Finally, Republicans have always accused Democrats of throwing money at problems.  That is just what Trump has done with Musk throwing millions at an untested ground game.  Criticism is anecdotal, but wide spread.

In contrast, Harris has a wide net of field offices throughout the battle ground states.  Turn out and micro targeting are run by two  of the best, David Plouffe and Jen O'Malley Dillion.  Ground game should give Harris a plus one throughout the magnificent seven states.

Be still thy heart, and chill the champagne.

Battle of the Sexes

 Numbers don't lie, but their truth may be hidden.  Despite Trump's cat calls, in 2024 Republicans have doggedly pushed early voting.  The result has scared Democrats.  The Republican share of the 38 million votes cast to date is up, particularly in the sun belt.

Unnoticed is a brilliant ray of sunshine--roughly 10 per cent more women have early voted.  This year the gender gap is a chasm.  Trump's campaign is all wrestle mania and penis size, with a heavy sprinkling of anti-trans ads.  Kamala is pushing reproductive rights.

In an election between sisterhood and the bro vote, the early returns are promising.

Final Attack

 Just out of the hospital, my prose may be bedridden.  As maybe, time for the final Harris attack.  I want to see ads tagging Trump as found liable for sexual assault by a unanimous jury.  I want ads about the murder pardoned by Trump who subsequently strangled his wife.

Finally I want ads targeted to Polish and Eastern European Americans in battle ground states.  The ads must starkly show the danger to their homelands posed by Trump's pro Putin and anti-NATO foreign policy. 

Single Issue Voters

 Group speak fascinates me.  A couple years ago, receipts, meaning evidence, was solely a black term.  Now it permeates every political commentary.  Organically, post debate, journalists universally referred to Trump as taking the bait.  Indeed he did, with the resulting cat and dog story that has morphed into a million memes.

But the most important moment may have been the Ukraine discussion because it may have created another group of single issue voters.   Single issue voting is emotional.  For many on both sides, abortion is an emotional issue which subsumes all other considerations.  Gun regulation is another such issue.  Conversely, the economy/inflation is the most important issue, but not one that blocks out all other considerations.

As I covered in a prior blog, "Pole Dancing,"  Ukraine/Nato/Putin, can be an over powering topic.  Danger to the homeland is emotional.  As Kamala explained, weakening NATO, and conceding Ukraine to  Russia, is an imminent threat to Poland.  Polish Americans are a huge, up for grabs, voting block in Michigan, Wisconsin, and, most importantly, Pennsylvania.  

If Kamala can win upwards of 80% of the Polish American vote the blue wall will encapsulate her victory.

Popping The Bubble

 Kamala has introduced herself to the electorate with a flawless rollout leading into a nearly perfect convention, and buttressed by a heavy rotation of bio ads in swing states.  The Trump campaign anticipates that the bubble will burst, popped by sharp negative attacks.

But the blue balloon has thicker skin than Trump anticipates.  Rather the red balloon is about to explode.  Trump, aided by a failed assassination, has the highest approval rating of his political career.  To date Harris ads are the soft soap that presents a clean new face to the public.  Soon she will focus the mirror on her opponent.

The public is largely aware of his felony conviction, but more devastating, and less known, is a jury holding him liable for sexual assault.  The gender chasm will be wide and deep.  His pardoning a murder who used his new found freedom to strangle his wife, will not play well with the law and order crowd.  When the air is out of the balloon Trump will have a favorability rating in the mid-thirties.

Harris will win by more than 8 million votes, with nearly 300 electoral college delegates.

Killing Kittens

 Why do MAGA Republicans hate animals? One governor shoots puppies, the VP Nominee hates cats, and Trump is the only president in my lifetime to not have a dog.

Is there something in Project 2025 about murdering kittens?

Old Age

Donald Trump is now the oldest person ever nominated by a major party to be president. Although he may be as boisterous as he was in 2016 and 2020, can we admit that he is far less coherent, or is Hannibal Lecter the number one issue facing the republic? 

The Battle Beneath the Surface Part 2

 Proximity to power is power.  Power is intoxicating.  The Biden campaign staff is vested in the continuity of his candidacy.  Time for divestiture.

In the most subtle way possible Kamala must let the upper echelon know that she intends to keep the team together if Joe exits the stage.  Staff resistance will dissipate, easing the path for the transition.  Biden will be applauded as a selfless hero if he stands down now.  If he leaves on January 20th, 2025, as a failed candidate, not so much.

The Battle Beneath the Surface

A battle is going on in the Democratic Party.  Not to see who will be the nominee.  Biden will, with great reluctance, bow to the inevitable, and withdraw in favor of Kamala.  Nor is it for the VP slot.  I prefer Beshear to balance the ticket, but the bench is deep, filled with Midwestern governors.

The fight to come is at the staff level.  As Kamala advances her staff will wish to harness the power of their loyalty. Power is everything in Washington.  But Kamala must resist.

Her 2020 run was short lived.  Staffing may have played a role.  Biden beat Trump.  Make no mistake, Biden was no JFK or Obama on the trail.  He owes much to his managers.   The star pitcher may have come up lame, but that is no reason to switch managers.  Kamala must go with the tried and true and only integrate staff members who are willing to subordinate for the team.

America For Sale

Quoting Lord Acton, "Absolute power corrupts absolutely."  Donald Trump already had a head start.  Even his ardent supporters would admit he is transactional, and perhaps in different words, greedy.

The Supreme Court's new presidential immunity doctrine removes the guard rails from a future Trump presidency.  He has a new project in Saudi Arabia.  Surely the Saudi's will be granted most favored nation status.

What is it worth to Putin for the United States to withdraw support from Ukraine, or better yet from Nato entirely?  That would be the quid, with a delayed quo after Trump's term ends.

America will be standing on the corner, scantily clad, offering her wares for sale.  Morality must prevail.  Stifle your qualms.  The Supreme Court has raised the stakes.  You must bet on Biden.

An Open Letter to Michelle

 Michelle, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you.   Questions plague the party after Biden's painful debate.  Unfortunately, given your determination never to run for public office, you are the only answer.

Biden, cannot, and should not, withdraw without a plausible alternative.  Kamala is the logical choice, but her low poll numbers defy that logic.  Other fine alternatives such as Whitmer, Shapiro, and Beshear, would alienate Black women, the most loyal foundation of the party.  Also they are untested on the National stage, and not known beyond the cognoscenti.

You check all the boxes, and are most likely to box out Trump from rebounding to the White House.  The threat to Democracy warrants the extreme sacrifice.

Choose a strong VP.  Consider Beshear, but the choice is yours.  Placate the bypassed Kamala with an offer of Secretary of State, and the promise to serve only one term.

Mazatlan on a Rope

 My latest offering in the Traveler on a Rope Series, Mazatlan on a Rope: A lifeline for foodies and other miscreants, is now available on Amazon.  The book is currently number 1 in new travel guides on Mexico.

https://www.amazon.com/Mazatlan-Rope-lifeline-foodies-miscreants-ebook/dp/B0D6M5VWPK?ref_=Oct_d_onr_d_17148_0&pd_rd_w=epqZk&content-id=amzn1.sym.12a8f1b2-726e-4ca7-882a-583673857fbc&pf_rd_p=12a8f1b2-726e-4ca7-882a-583673857fbc&pf_rd_r=B7DEWVEAYNPWBRTSK4XA&pd_rd_wg=nmn6k&pd_rd_r=bec8e4d7-90f1-413b-b5f4-e30cbadbc099&pd_rd_i=B0D6M5VWPK

Republicans have no Pride

 

In recognition of pride month, Colorado Republicans want to burn the pride flag, and the wife of Justice Alito, calls the display of the flag shameful. If your are LGBTQ+, or care about someone who is, the most important color of the rainbow is blue. Vote blue, give blue, work blue.

To Log Cabin Republicans, time to switch before your party burns your house down.

Music in the Square

 Plaza Machado in Mazatlan has music most nights, and almost always Thursday through Saturday.  Buy a drink or a meal at one of the restaurants, or bust a move for free.  My apologies for the dark videos.  I forgot to set the ISO to auto.

Colorful Centro Historico Mazatlan

 

Selling the Planet

For a large donation by big oil, Trump has promised to remove environmental regulations. I am 73, may not impact me, but if I was young, Trump would not be the one. 

The Jim Crow West Bank

 The West Bank is crowing like the early 20th century American South.  The settlers are the Klu Klux Klan with yarmulkes.  Palestinian homes are raided and burned, businesses are destroyed.  The Israeli government at best ignores the violence, or at worst, supports the settlers.

The Religious Zionist Party and its allies, resemble the Dixiecrats.  Essential to the continuation of the Netanyahu coalition, they protect and expand the settlements.

Nor is bigotry the sole motivation.  Housing is expensive in Israel.  Driving out the Palestinians creates free land and residences.  Much of the land is commuting distance to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.  Imagine if those desperate to live on the westside of Los Angeles decided to terrorize and expel the tenants and home owners in Mar Vista.

Israel was created as a safe haven from religious persecution.  As an American Jew, I expect better.

Why Biden is Pulling Ahead

 For the first time this election cycle, polls show Biden pedaling ahead of Trump.  The reasons are two fold.  First is the State of the Union address.  The speech reassured Democrats and raised money, but did not immediately inflate Biden's poll numbers.  

The collateral impact of the address was to change the conversation.  Republicans stepped on their own message.  The GOP, with remarkable success, has pounded on Biden's age.  But in response to the speech,  Republicans cited Biden as being angry, talking too fast, shouting, and even Trump claiming Biden ingested cocaine.   Hardly, the description of a doddering old man.  The media has followed suit.  References to Biden's age have declined, and late night comedians have moved on.

The second reason is advertising.  Political advertising is often mere background noise.  Two chords transform it into a beat the public will dance to.  First, if it is unopposed.  Biden is buying digital and other media in key markets, while the less funded Trump campaign is not.  More importantly, the Biden campaign's ads funnel and amplify free media.

Abortion is in the news.  The Alabama decision on IVF and the more recent barbaric abortion decision in Arizona have the public focused.  The Biden campaign has nimbly responded with impactful abortion ads. 

The election is a long way off, but finally the Biden campaign has pushed the on button.

Ping

 I have a new business. Shooting small rubber bands at my computer screen. During the first quarter, I lost 2 dollars (the cost of the rubber bands). I expect to reach the break even point in the second quarter, since the rubber bands are reusable. Trump's media company lost 58 million over the last 4 quarters and is valued at 8 billion. Based on that valuation, I conservatively estimate the value of "Ping" at 10 billion.

Pole Dancing

 Time for the Biden campaign to bust a move.  Polish Americans make up nearly 8 percent of the population in Michigan and Wisconsin, two key swing states.  The number is a little over 5 per cent in Pennsylvania.  Up the ante with transplants from other eastern European NATO countries, and you have a sizable voting block.

Polish Americans, and their eastern European counterparts, are swing voters with nearly equal registration between Democrats, Republicans and independents.  Time to swing them in one direction.

All too often Trump's most outrageous comments play to his base, infuriate liberals, but barely move the needle with those in the middle.  Trump's invitation for Putin to invade NATO countries, and his lack of support for Ukraine, should be different.

Biden must seize the moment, advertising in the Polish Monthly, and every other demographically desirable media source.  Go east, not so young man, go east.

Double Jeopardy

 The President would be an awful contestant on Jeopardy. Instant recall and exact phrasing are not his strengths.  But presidents do not play foreign or domestic policy for 200.  They play it for real.

That requires deliberation, not flash card memory.  A president takes advice from a team of experts,  cabinet level on down, and tempers it with his wisdom and experience into steely policy.  

Biden has choosen advisers based on ability and experience, Trump favors loyalty.  Biden has background as a Senator and a Vice President before winning the Presidency.  Trump was a game show host, and ran a fraudulent family real estate business with 500 million in seed money from his father.

We somehow survived Trump's chaotic first term.  Do the American people really want to place the country in double jeopardy?

Mirror, Mirror

 It is often said that every Senator looks in the mirror and sees a president.  So too prosecutors see the reflection of a judge, even the judicial robes of a Supreme Court justice.  Certainly Special Counsel, Robert Hur has the credentials to make history as the first Asian American to so ascend.

He clerked for late U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist.  Hur is a graduate of Stanford Law School, where he was editor of the law review, and was an undergraduate at Harvard College. Hur served as top aide to then-Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein before his appointment as the U.S.attorney in Maryland by, then president, Trump. He is currently a partner with a prestigious, and politically connected, law firm.

As Special Counsel investigating the retention of documents by President Biden, Hur had a peek at an obstacle to his blind ambition.  The case against the President is weak and unwinnable.  But dismissing the case would anger the MAGA base of the Republican Party.  As a Republican, Hur's judicial goal rests in the hands of a future Republican president.

The ugly solution was to vindicate Biden, but issue a politically damaging report, replete with gratuitous insults and attacks.  Splitting the baby may be politically wise, but it demonstrates that Hur lacks the integrity and temperament to serve on the highest court.

Willy Go Round in Circles

For months Republican Senators have refused to provide aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, without concessions on border security. Democrats caved, and gave them what they wanted. Republicans voted it down. The Senate has now approved the aid package without the southern border provisions.

The only saving grace for the Republican circular firing squad is that they cannot shoot straight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1TmIhddn0c

Lucy Pulled the Football Again

For months Republicans refused to authorize further aid to Ukraine without restrictions placed on immigration at our southern border.  The two issues are completely unrelated but, Ukraine is so important that the administration capitulated.  After months of legislative time, a bipartisan group of Senators crafted strict border controls.  The administration signaled a willingness to sign such a bill over the objections of the progressive wing of the Democratic party.

Aid to Ukraine is one of the best deals in diplomatic history.  Without risking a single American life, Russian aggression is stymied.  A possible confrontation between NATO and Russia, with nuclear implications, is averted.  Equally important, China learns that we stand behind our allies, discouraging the conquest of Taiwan.  

Republicans, at the direction of the former president, refused to declare victory.  Confronted with a bill that met their demands, they said, "Just kidding."  Lucy may be laughing, but the American people have fallen on their backs.

Sound Game by Rams

 Ford Field is built Ford tough, never more so than during the playoff game with the Rams.  The covered stadium roared to a record 133.6 decibels, louder than the takeoff of a 747.  Kudos to Lion fans, but also to the Rams.  

They were mentally solid, in fact, remarkable.  Even as a young team, they did not commit a single false start nor an illegal procedure, typical noise induced penalties.  Timeouts did spare them two potential delay of game penalties, but with their complex pre-snap motion, that is about typical.

Even in defeat they showed their mettle as a well coached, well prepared team.  With some cap space, a solid nucleus of returnees, and a first round draft choice, the Rams should have a wonderful new season.