Russian Spring conscription begins April 1. That is when the war becomes personal. Mothers, babushkas and potential draftees, will face the reality of the Ukrainian meat grinder that chews up the under trained conscripts.
Possible death, or death of a loved one. focuses the mind. Will pro war sentiment flounder, or is Russia a land of April fools?
Will Smith is the Magic Johnson of actors. Like Magic he parlayed a strong skill set, a thousand watt smile and an image of infinite affability, into fame and fortune. He slapped the affable image away at the Oscars.
Given his height and weight advantage, Will punched down. Chis with his G.I Jane joke did not. Jada is not a civilian. She is an actress with a social media show that discusses the most intimate details of her marriage. As half of a power couple she was sitting in the front row.
The G.I. Jane joke met all the criteria for an improvised Academy Awards joke. It was funny, it was movie related, and given Jada's army green dress, spot on. Rock was the consummate professional, continuing on with his award presentation.
Will was sexist and wallowed in self pity, and misplaced self righteousness. His wife is an adult capable of fighting her own battles. To step in as her male savior is to deny her equality. When your wife openly talks about her affair on her show, and you are one of, if not, the highest paid actors in Hollywood, you elicit little empathy for your social media tribulations. Fame and fortune have a price.
Finally, Smith overshadowed the Oscar for the socially and musically significant best documentary, Summer of Soul. A deep, hard working black man had his magic moment shortened and slighted by an emotionally shallow, member of the privileged class.
What a difference a government makes. Starting in Viet Nam and ending in Afghanistan, we supported governments with no popular support. No matter the amount of military training and equipment, like humpty dumpty, those governments fell, and could not be put back together. When we prop up an unpopular leader we fall.
Ukranians love and respect Zelensky. Short of risking a nuclear confrontation, we benefit from every weapon we supply to Ukraine. With little effort on our part, a rogue state is drained of men, material and prestige. Each tank that is stopped, each plane that is downed, is one less weapon aimed at our European allies.
A no fly zone risks armed confrontation with Russian planes. That is a no go. But supplying aircraft protects Ukraine and furthers our objectives. We preserve a democracy on Putin's flank and decimate his air force.
We can do more. We should stage a large NATO exercise as close to Moscow as possible. A paranoid regime will counter by deploying forces between NATO and Moscow. This will preclude sending additional troops to Ukraine, and may even precipitate a partial withdrawal.
Ukraine was already a friend. But the enemy of our enemy, is an even better friend.
The Russian army consists of two groups. Contract soldiers sign on for 3 years, and according to the Washington Post, are paid roughly a thousand dollars a month. The other group is conscripts. All Russian men 18-27 are subject to being drafted for military service. Conscripts are paid roughly 25 dollars a month for their one year of service. They receive 4 months of basic training.
By law conscripts are not allowed to serve on the front lines. But a funny thing happened on the way to the war--conscripts have become the canon fodder brigade on the front line. Apparently they have been told they were on a training exercise and possibly tricked into sighing up as contract soldiers.
The conscripts are lacking in expertise and even lighter in esprit de corps. A volunteer army like ours, has the time to develop unit cohesion with each soldier having the back of their comrades. Russian conscripts don't know how to fight or why they are fighting. Most importantly, they lack loyalty to their unit.
Numbers and technical superiority will weight the conflict strongly in Russia's favor. But the conscript contingent, has no doubt played a large role in the army's under performance.
