Saturday, September 1, 2018

TIPP a Canoe and Trump Too

Polls tend to fly in formation, tightly grouped, within a margin of error.  A poll's institutional bias will add to the spread, e.g. Rasmussen having a GOP tilt.  But in the fog of statistics, every so often, one poll peals off from the rest.

Will others follow, or is that poll lost in a morass of sampling error?   On Friday the ABC/Washington Post poll left the pack with Trump disapproved by 60% and approved by 38%.  But today it is no longer alone. IBD/TIPP has Trump dropping to a 36% approval with a 58% disapproval.

If other polls join, the midterms could have long term consequences for the GOP.