Single Issue Voters

 Group speak fascinates me.  A couple years ago, receipts, meaning evidence, was solely a black term.  Now it permeates every political commentary.  Organically, post debate, journalists universally referred to Trump as taking the bait.  Indeed he did, with the resulting cat and dog story that has morphed into a million memes.

But the most important moment may have been the Ukraine discussion because it may have created another group of single issue voters.   Single issue voting is emotional.  For many on both sides, abortion is an emotional issue which subsumes all other considerations.  Gun regulation is another such issue.  Conversely, the economy/inflation is the most important issue, but not one that blocks out all other considerations.

As I covered in a prior blog, "Pole Dancing,"  Ukraine/Nato/Putin, can be an over powering topic.  Danger to the homeland is emotional.  As Kamala explained, weakening NATO, and conceding Ukraine to  Russia, is an imminent threat to Poland.  Polish Americans are a huge, up for grabs, voting block in Michigan, Wisconsin, and, most importantly, Pennsylvania.  

If Kamala can win upwards of 80% of the Polish American vote the blue wall will encapsulate her victory.

Popping The Bubble

 Kamala has introduced herself to the electorate with a flawless rollout leading into a nearly perfect convention, and buttressed by a heavy rotation of bio ads in swing states.  The Trump campaign anticipates that the bubble will burst, popped by sharp negative attacks.

But the blue balloon has thicker skin than Trump anticipates.  Rather the red balloon is about to explode.  Trump, aided by a failed assassination, has the highest approval rating of his political career.  To date Harris ads are the soft soap that presents a clean new face to the public.  Soon she will focus the mirror on her opponent.

The public is largely aware of his felony conviction, but more devastating, and less known, is a jury holding him liable for sexual assault.  The gender chasm will be wide and deep.  His pardoning a murder who used his new found freedom to strangle his wife, will not play well with the law and order crowd.  When the air is out of the balloon Trump will have a favorability rating in the mid-thirties.

Harris will win by more than 8 million votes, with nearly 300 electoral college delegates.

Killing Kittens

 Why do MAGA Republicans hate animals? One governor shoots puppies, the VP Nominee hates cats, and Trump is the only president in my lifetime to not have a dog.

Is there something in Project 2025 about murdering kittens?

Old Age

Donald Trump is now the oldest person ever nominated by a major party to be president. Although he may be as boisterous as he was in 2016 and 2020, can we admit that he is far less coherent, or is Hannibal Lecter the number one issue facing the republic? 

The Battle Beneath the Surface Part 2

 Proximity to power is power.  Power is intoxicating.  The Biden campaign staff is vested in the continuity of his candidacy.  Time for divestiture.

In the most subtle way possible Kamala must let the upper echelon know that she intends to keep the team together if Joe exits the stage.  Staff resistance will dissipate, easing the path for the transition.  Biden will be applauded as a selfless hero if he stands down now.  If he leaves on January 20th, 2025, as a failed candidate, not so much.

The Battle Beneath the Surface

A battle is going on in the Democratic Party.  Not to see who will be the nominee.  Biden will, with great reluctance, bow to the inevitable, and withdraw in favor of Kamala.  Nor is it for the VP slot.  I prefer Beshear to balance the ticket, but the bench is deep, filled with Midwestern governors.

The fight to come is at the staff level.  As Kamala advances her staff will wish to harness the power of their loyalty. Power is everything in Washington.  But Kamala must resist.

Her 2020 run was short lived.  Staffing may have played a role.  Biden beat Trump.  Make no mistake, Biden was no JFK or Obama on the trail.  He owes much to his managers.   The star pitcher may have come up lame, but that is no reason to switch managers.  Kamala must go with the tried and true and only integrate staff members who are willing to subordinate for the team.

America For Sale

Quoting Lord Acton, "Absolute power corrupts absolutely."  Donald Trump already had a head start.  Even his ardent supporters would admit he is transactional, and perhaps in different words, greedy.

The Supreme Court's new presidential immunity doctrine removes the guard rails from a future Trump presidency.  He has a new project in Saudi Arabia.  Surely the Saudi's will be granted most favored nation status.

What is it worth to Putin for the United States to withdraw support from Ukraine, or better yet from Nato entirely?  That would be the quid, with a delayed quo after Trump's term ends.

America will be standing on the corner, scantily clad, offering her wares for sale.  Morality must prevail.  Stifle your qualms.  The Supreme Court has raised the stakes.  You must bet on Biden.