Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Respect

The media and the political establishment have not taken Donald Trump seriously.  He is the president elect.  The condescension must stop.  He deserves to be held to the same high standard as other presidential candidates, let alone as the president elect.

Conflict of interest is a stunning example.  Under sustained pressure from left, right and mainstream media, as well as a broad spectrum of politicians, Hillary was forced to commit to divesting the family charitable foundation.  In the interim foreign and corporate contributions, were curtailed.  This is a foundation that has saved thousands of lives, and helped millions.  None of the Clintons received any compensation from the foundation.

Contrast this with the far flung Trump business empire.  Rather than building a wall along our southern border, he should build a Chinese wall between himself and the business.  Instead his laughable plan is to have his children run the business.  Going for an even bigger laugh, he has made his children special advisors to the president with top secret clearance.  They also serve on the transition team, staffing the new administration.

The potential for conflicts is legion.  Suppose they lack their father's golden touch.  In return for investment capital or a favorable loan from foreign player, they influence policy.  To gain access corporations need only agree to hold a major conference at a Trump property.

Good times are no shield.  The most insidious threat is trading state secrets for financial advantage.  Suppose they meet with Russian officials as representatives of our government.  At the same time they ask for favorable terms, on building a hotel in Moscow.

Holding President Trump to a high ethical standard is not an attack, but rather appropriate respect for the office of the presidency.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Dropping Out of College

Americans voting for a candidate that they know has neither the qualifications, nor the temperament  to be president, tore my heart out.  I may be blogging more about food and travel, than politics, while I shake it off.

Trump is now my president, and I must hope for his success,  Maybe he will surround himself with wise people who will appeal to his better angels.  If not, we will redouble our efforts to elect a Democratic Senate in 2018, and to replace him in 2020.

 Until then, we should work to eliminate the electoral college.  My plea is not because Hillary won the popular vote, but because we need to come together and be united states.  Candidates should be talking to us all, not only to voters in 13 or 15 highly contested states.  My vote in California should matter as much as that of my friend in Florida.

My vote is already devalued by California having the same number of Senators as a less populous state like Montana.  At least my vote for president should have meaning.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Final Prediction

Momentum has swung back to Hillary.  Surrogates and volunteers are powering up, as the election winds down.

Hillary will win at the high end of current surveys, 6 percentage points.  Her electoral total will be above 339.

Democrats will narrowly capture the Senate.  House pickups will be in the mid to high teens.

Let me know your predictions.

Broken Promises

No one would accuse Donald Trump of being a policy wonk.  His proposals are thin and wobbly.  He is asking for a blank check.  Does he deserve our trust?

Past behavior is the best indicator of future conduct.  Trump's life is an amalgam of broken promises. Least important is his contempt for his marriage vows.  He publicly cheated on his first two wives, and apparently, has cheated on Melania, as well.

More meaningful is his business conduct.  Stripped of legalese, a contract at its core is a written promise.  Trump has consistently ignored obligations to pay vendors and their workers.  These are the very small business owners and blue collar workers who make up his coalition.  Be assured he is no more likely to keep the promises he makes to his voters, than he was to honor contracts with his vendors.

A man with charity in his heart can be trusted.  As the Washington Post established, Trump and his foundation made many promises, but never wrote the checks.

Nothing is worth more than a man's good name.  Trump carelessly sold his to underfunded developers that never broke ground, dashing the retirement plans of thousands.

Most damning of all is Trump University and Trump Institute.  Trump failed to deliver the promise of a better future for his students, just as he will fail to provide a better future for Americans.

Sunday, November 6, 2016

Mighty Pen

On Monday Pennsylvania will be the epicenter of the political world.  The Clintons and Obamas will share the stage before thousands.  Is Hillary afraid of losing this Democratic stronghold?

The answer is nuanced.  With Comey incompetently skewing the race, the polls have tightened.  Trump's campaign can count to 270.  The swing states are not enough.  They need a blue state.  Thinking he is the WD 40 for the rustbelt, Trump is making a big push in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

But the main reason is structural.  Pennsylvania has virtually no early voting.  In preserving her blue wall, Hillary has focused on early voting states.  Now to close the door on Trump, she is making a  big entrance in a state that has yet to cast votes.

While Trumpets shout, "Lock her up," she is locking down the presidency.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

3 Points and a Cloud of Dust

Time to grind it out.  A good ground game can be worth up to 3 points.  Three points is enough to give Hillary a safe lead.

In early voting states, surrogates systematically speak near voting sites.  Canvassing is the spear tip on the polling data, to get out the first time ,or occasional voter.  The low lying voters can be harvested on election day.

Obamacare premium increases and Comey coming hither, have us rooting for the grass roots.  Knock, knock is no joke.

Sunday, October 30, 2016

48 Hour FBI Flu

Giving Comey the benefit of the doubt that he might be acting in good faith, we will have this email wrapped up in two days.  The task is simpler than before.

First isolate all emails from Clinton to Huma Abedin.  Next cross reference against any emails from Clinton to Abedin on Hillary's server.  Eliminate all duplicates.  Review the remainder, if any.

If Comey drags this on beyond the election, he may be willfully violating the Hatch Act.