Saturday, February 13, 2016

Sander's Sandbox

Bernie capturing nearly 85% of the under 25 vote is historic.  Closely correlated is his success with first time voters.  His policies have obvious appeal to young voters who are usually more idealistic.   Oddly, the iconoclastic Senator, may also benefit from herd mentality.  Millennials intimate connection through social networks may turn majorities into super majorities.  But while politically oriented networks may concentrate the vote, the key question is whether they expand the vote.

Bernie's electability argument hinges on the answer.  So far the answer is no.  Eschewing voters in the center Bernie argues that he can bring millions of new voters into the system, ensuring his election and fueling his political revolution.

Compared to the last contested Democratic primaries in 2008, in 2016 there are less voters, and less first time voters.  Voters age 18-24 have increased marginally from 11 to 12 per cent of the electorate.  As a general election candidate Bernie is not bringing in enough new voters to offset those he is losing.  Ironically, notwithstanding his opposition to SuperPacs, GOP SuperPacs are spending millions in support of Bernie.

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